My wife, who keeps an eye on the political events in our country from a healthy distance, recently asked me: “What happens if the opposition wins the assembly elections?” Her question caught me off guard since I tend to always focus on the negative, thinking about how Chavez and his electoral ministry will ensure the revolutionary continuity, thus maintaining their hold on power, regardless of the people’s votes.
Some might wonder, “Why such negativity regarding our possibilities?” To this, I would respond that since the 2004 recall referendum, chavismo has instilled doubt in me about the outcomes of all electoral processes. Now, let me explain my reasons:
2004: After many months of negotiation, representatives from the democratic coordinator, chavismo, and international observers reached a first amendment that excluded everyone, even chavistas. Chavez lost because he wanted to crown himself monarch and assume absolute power. Power to appoint officials at will, bypassing electoral results. Power to keep the armed forces in check with bolivarian militias, armed, financed, and dependent solely on him. Power to unilaterally redefine the geographical, institutional, and political distribution of the state. In short, Chavez made a mess of things, and the lawyers who usually support him felt their heads were on the chopping block, while public employees—millions of them—and military members simply stayed away, not mobilizing people to vote or distributing the usual funds during campaigns. Additionally, by chance, I met Raul Baduel during a trip to Caracas, the very same who brought Chavez back to power in 2002. He mentioned something that confirmed what many of us thought: the CUFAN headquarters has monitors that allow real-time viewing of the voting processes. The results shown on these monitors led Baduel to start communicating with Tibisay Lucena from 1 PM on voting day, informing her that the trend was undoubtedly toward losing and that the military would not allow fraud.
2008: Chavez lost in Petare, Caracas, and Zulia. Let someone tell me that Chavez’s treatment of Ocariz, and especially Antonio Ledezma, reflects the behavior of a democrat or someone who respects electoral results. He passed his second amendment, but this time he made sure to share the spoils, resulting in a well-orchestrated effort by his supporters.
Based on all this, among other things, I replied to my wife:
“What happens if the opposition wins the assembly? In a democratic country, the assembly is where representatives selected through free elections decide on all matters affecting the state. This means that the assembly, as long as it meets the required legal majorities, can:
anull all actions, legislations, decrees, allocations, appointments, projects, and other actions violating the constitution of Chavez’s regime, according to article 25.
Dismiss all judges of the Supreme Court and appoint new ones. The same applies to the entire justice system.
Dismiss the governing board of the National Electoral Council and appoint a new one.
Amend the Organic Law of Suffrage and Political Participation and introduce the requirement for manual elections in Venezuela.
Call for a constitutional national assembly and re-establish the state.
Form committees to investigate all actions that might be considered violations of the constitution carried out by Chavez’s regime.
Open inquiries into Hugo Chavez, and if found responsible for violations of the constitution and laws, declare him unfit for his position and dismiss him. The same can be done with all high-ranking officials of the regime.
Redirect the state budget, review and amend the existing one.
Pass legislation aimed at decentralizing the state.
Suspend relations with countries deemed harmful to Venezuela…
I paused, realizing that I was getting carried away, and that my response had little to do with reality, but rather with a utopian state that can exist only in musings about present-day Venezuela. I resumed my response:
“Sure, all that could happen in a democratic nation. Meaning, if Chavez loses control of the assembly, that would be the start of his downfall. However, what are the actual chances of such things occurring? What are the chances that Chavez, knowing that all the above could transpire and could land him in jail, would allow the opposition to win the assembly? None, my love.