A few days ago, I had a fascinating conversation about the future of Venezuela with Pedro Burelli. Pedro mentioned how challenging it is to explain the country’s situation, and he created an analogy that’s easy for anyone to grasp, which he called the carousel. According to his explanation, what Pedro means is that fairground attraction consisting of a spinning wheel of horses that go up and down. It goes without saying that, aside from the spinning motion and the up-and-down movement, the carousel doesn’t move in any direction, meaning it remains stationary.
Pedro asserts that all Venezuelans are on that carousel. Some are up, others are down, but they are all going in circles, in the same place. In other words, everyone shares the same vision. Hugo Chavez, on the other hand, is in charge of the carousel: he sells tickets, collects money, controls when to start and stop, and checks if everyone on the horses has tickets—he is, in short, the owner of the circus.
Given this, it is very difficult, in Pedro’s opinion, to hold out any hope for a potential political or democratic resolution in Venezuela. In 2012, there will be presidential elections, and even though the opposition has rejoiced over the electoral results obtained on September 26, when Chavez and his allies garnered a minority of the vote, the reality is that the difference reflects a near parity between both sides (52% – 48%).
Nonetheless, opinion polls show that more than 70% of Venezuelans reject expropriations and attacks on private property, communism, militarism, the hateful rhetoric of Hugo Chavez, incitement to violence and fratricidal war, support for terrorist groups and Cuba. In other words, there is a disconnection between the overwhelming rejection of the dictator’s policies and the number of votes the opposition receives. The gap is almost 20%. Where are those votes, or more critically, why doesn’t that 20% go to the polls to exercise the only democratic option to express their dissent? This is a very relevant question, and I can only agree with Pedro in repeatedly asking opposition leaders, who don’t even consider analyzing different scenarios for what might happen should they win the elections.
Another excellent analogy created by Pedro is that of the bus. Venezuela is a bus that is gaining speed on a downhill slope. Its driver, Hugo Chavez, is completely drunk on power and lacks both the ability and the desire to prevent the impending crash. On the contrary, like a kamikaze, he keeps accelerating. The bus has no brakes, the engine has only one-tenth of its capacity left, the gear lever is detached, and the steering is broken, with three flat tires. In short, even if we were to replace the current driver — let’s say if the opposition wins in 2012 — with Michael Schumacher trying to prevent the accident—an unimaginable situation—we cannot ignore the conditions the bus is in. We must also remember that you can’t fix a bus that’s moving at full speed. So, what can we expect other than disaster?
A Different Perspective
Diego Arria was in London a couple of weeks ago. Some may accuse him of corruption, fraud, illegal enrichment, etc. In this regard, Diego maintains that no court in Venezuela has found him guilty of such crimes. However, what he cannot be accused of is lacking vision. Diego, like Pedro and many other Venezuelans living abroad, long ago stepped off the carousel and chose to make his life elsewhere. His perspective is different. Walking through Green Park the other day, we shared experiences from the presidential campaign of 2006, where I had the chance to work with him, and interestingly, we expressed the same frustration over what we believe is a lack of consideration from the politicians on the carousel toward any viewpoint or perspective they do not see. And they don’t see it for a very simple reason: because they can’t, as they keep going round and round in the same place, exposed to a static reality, or because they are on the bus, focusing on how to save their own skins.
This doesn’t mean that the perspective of the carousel politicians is not valid or important. What it is, is limited and short-sighted. Constrained to the space around them. Those of us who have stepped off the carousel have a different perspective; we have been exposed to other realities. In Diego’s case, his experience as an aide to Secretary-General Kofi Annan and President of the UN Security Council allowed him to participate actively in resolving very complex ethnic conflicts, such as that of Bosnia. Diego, like Pedro and many exiles, has much to offer. He has faced far worse and much more polarized situations. However, from the carousel, they see him, like they see all the others, as people trying to take up the limited spots.
Venezuela needs its carousel politicians; after all, the show must go on. But it also needs Pedros, Diegos, and anyone willing to step up or lend a hand to prevent the disastrous accident that will undoubtedly happen with the kamikaze we have at the wheel. Those of us watching the carousel or the bus from a distance have the peace and calm—since our lives are not in danger—to analyze the situation and propose solutions. Our opinions must find space and be considered as we approach the presidential elections in 2012.