The fight against the Cartel of the Suns involves a set of strategies from the United States to be executed in three possible scenarios: a long-term financial blockade to provoke internal collapse, surgical operations to extract and destroy drug laboratories, or a large-scale military intervention similar to Panama.
Security and intelligence specialist José Humberto García spoke with Venezuela Política and Sin Filtros, analyzing the rising tensions in Venezuela and the increasing U.S. military operations in the Caribbean aimed at combating narcoterrorism represented by the criminal enterprise of Nicolás Maduro and his regime, which epitomize the Cartel of the Suns.
García also discussed the Venezuelan dictatorship’s capacity to respond, the role of its international allies — Russia, China, and Cuba — and the misinformation war aimed at thwarting any U.S. action.
He emphasized that the main goal is to assist Venezuelans in escaping a criminal regime — not to occupy the country — as well as the post-operation phase that will require the internal reorganization of legitimate forces and the eradication of guerrilla groups.
The U.S. Strategy and Scenarios for Venezuela
The military operation the United States is deploying in the Caribbean is exerting unprecedented pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s criminal enterprise — the head of the Cartel of the Suns — effectively paralyzing its main source of income: drug trafficking.
José Humberto García stated that this economic strangulation creates maximum internal tension, highlighting that the regime may face a cash flow collapse between November and December, which will likely force it to aggressively seek liquidity through institutions like SENIAT.
The expert noted that the United States is implementing a tiered risk management strategy, similar to treating a patient with cancer, encompassing three main action scenarios, ordered from lowest to highest cost:
Economic Siege: continue the blockade to force internal collapse due to lack of resources, which could culminate in betrayal within the regime itself.
Surgical Operations: carry out extractions of key leaders — those with bounty on their heads — and destroy critical narcotics infrastructure (laboratories and airstrips).
Limited Invasion: a larger-scale military intervention, similar to Panama, which is considered the least likely option due to U.S. political aversion to prolonged conflicts.
However, José Humberto García warned that despite its growing diplomatic isolation, Nicolás Maduro’s criminal enterprise — the Cartel of the Suns — is preparing for a counteroffensive based on asymmetric warfare, misinformation, and using the civilian population as human shields to elevate the political cost of any intervention.
He also pointed out that the responsibility for post-collapse stabilization will fall on Venezuelans, who would face a prolonged infantry war to eradicate criminal groups and restore state territorial control.
U.S. Military Operation in the Caribbean
The U.S. government has deployed — and continues to deploy — a significant military operation in the Caribbean, which has established an effective blockade around the Venezuelan coasts.
This operation is characterized by:
Naval Presence:
The deployment of at least three destroyers that cover the main departure points for narcotics: the east (Anzoátegui), the center (Puerto Cabello, Aragua), and the west (Falcón, Zulia). The direct effect is that “Venezuelan territorial waters are practically paralyzed,” with no movement of yachts or sailboats.
Control of the Electromagnetic Spectrum:
The United States possesses technological capabilities that provide complete control over communications in the area. Through aircraft, satellites, and radars, it monitors all types of transmissions, from phone calls to radio communications. There is no movement the regime can make without being detected beforehand.
Advanced Satellite Surveillance:
U.S. military satellites can capture high-resolution images that can “see people’s faces,” nullifying any possibility of large-scale covert movements.
Main Objective: Economic Strangulation of the Cartel of the Suns
The U.S. strategy focuses on dismantling the regime’s primary source of funding, which is no longer oil but cocaine trafficking.
Drug Dependency: it is said that “the Cartel of the Suns […] depends on cocaine more than it depends on oil.”
Interruption of Cash Flow: by blocking the Caribbean route, the U.S. has halted the shipment of goods. The inventory of cocaine is accumulating in Venezuelan territory, while the regime’s cash flow is depleting. It is estimated that receivables will run out between November and December 2024.
Indicators of the Crisis: the regime’s desperation for liquidity is evident. Institutions like SENIAT and IVSS are intensifying their fiscal aggression against businesses to generate revenue and compensate for the loss of drug income.
Strategic Scenarios for a Regime Change
José Humberto García described the U.S. approach as a methodical process that began with minimally invasive procedures that, after observing the reaction, will trigger adjustments in the decisions to be made. He explained that the strategy avoids rigid plans.
The three possible scenarios, from most likely to least likely:
| Scenario | Description | Key Tactics | Historical Parallel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collapse by Siege | Maintain economic pressure and isolation until the system collapses from within, due to lack of money and betrayal from its members. | -Complete naval and financial blockade. -Declare the DGCIM as a terrorist organization to dismantle the regime’s internal armed wing. | Siege of a walled city in the Middle Ages. |
| Surgical Operations | Direct and high-precision interventions by elite special forces, supported by on-ground intelligence. | -Extraction of leaders with bounties (Maduro, Diosdado). -Destruction of cocaine processing laboratories and inventories. | Operation to capture Osama bin Laden. |
| Limited Invasion | A larger-scale military operation aimed at taking control of the regime and dismantling the cartel. | -Deployment of amphibious units like the Marines. -Destruction of the cartel’s leadership. | Invasion of Panama to capture Manuel Noriega. |
García suggested the possibility of declaring the Military Counterintelligence Directorate (DGCIM) as a terrorist organization, which would be a critical step in this operation. He described the DGCIM as “the armed wing of the cartel” — equivalent to “Los Zetas” in Mexico — responsible for arrests, torture, and disappearances to maintain internal cohesion of the regime. Its designation as a terrorist organization would allow any Venezuelan military or police officer to act against it legally.
Response Capability of Maduro’s Regime and Its Allies
Although Nicolás Maduro’s regime — a criminal enterprise, the Cartel of the Suns — and its allies attempt to build a narrative of rejection against U.S. “interference,” its real capacity for response is limited.
Regional Allies:
Colombia: The government of Gustavo Petro, while ideologically aligned and supposedly previously funded by chavismo, will not intervene militarily. Petro faces internal pressures heading into the upcoming elections, and the Colombian army would not act to “rescue a bunch of criminals.”
Brazil: President Lula da Silva may offer diplomatic support, but the Brazilian military and diplomacy, being independent institutions, act as a counterbalance, limiting any tangible support.
International Pressure: The Trump administration has shown clear disdain for institutions like the UN and protests from small Caribbean countries, prioritizing U.S. national security. Diplomatic efforts by figures like Marco Rubio are effective in consolidating a hemispheric alliance against the Cartel of the Suns.
Exhausted Communication Channels: The channels the regime maintained with Washington, often managed by the Rodríguez brothers, “have dried up.” Even diplomatic channels in Qatar have closed. The only possible interlocutor remaining is Richard Grenell, who operates more from an ideological conviction than from affinity with the regime.
Asymmetric Warfare Strategy and Misinformation
Faced with conventional inferiority, the Cartel of the Suns — Nicolás Maduro’s criminal enterprise — is preparing a defense based on guerrilla tactics and propaganda.
Use of Human Shields: Weapons have been given to civilians — even to the elderly and those in poor physical condition — not for real defense, but to create civilian casualties that can be exploited in the media. The aim is to generate images of “innocent victims” to accuse intervention forces of war crimes, a tactic similar to that of Hamas.
Guerrilla Warfare: They promise a “Vietnam” and a 100-year war with support from terrorist groups like the ELN and other criminal collectives operating along the porous border with Colombia.
Repositioning Military Assets: It has been detected that the Maduro regime emptied military arms depots and relocated them to private farms or secret locations. Likewise, air defense systems are being moved to protect drug laboratories and the residences of kingpins, instead of strategic state installations.
Informational Warfare: The regime’s propaganda apparatus, supported by Cuba, Russia, and China, is its most effective tool. They constantly bombard international media with misinformation to influence public opinion and increase political pressure on the United States.
Post-Collapse Perspectives: Venezuelan Responsibility
José Humberto García stressed that the ultimate goal is not an occupation, but the liberation of Venezuela. Once Nicolás Maduro’s criminal enterprise is eliminated, the most complex phase will begin, which is the sole responsibility of Venezuelans.
A Fragmented Country: Post-regime Venezuela will initially be a poorly controlled state, limited to certain areas of Caracas, while the rest of the territory will be in the hands of armed groups.
The Necessary Infantry War: To restore the rule of law, a counterinsurgency campaign will be inevitable.
Hostile Combatants: It is estimated that there are between 5,000 and 10,000 individuals capable of effective combat willing to resist.
Actions Required:
– Enact strict anti-terrorism legislation.
– Take control of heavy weaponry (tanks, S-300 missiles).
– Reorganize, retrain, and rearm Venezuelan infantry forces.
– Launch operations to regain territorial control in areas like Apure or 23 de Enero in Caracas.
In this phase, U.S. support would be limited to intelligence, electronic surveillance, and assistance in cutting off funding sources for irregular groups.
Watch in Sin Filtros “The Great Sweep: How the U.S. is Redesigning the Caribbean to Combat Cartels”: