In a move that has raised alarms on the international stage, Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela has formally requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, claiming a military aggression from the United States is “inevitable” and could happen “in the very near future.”
The United States is confronting a Russia-China-Iran axis through proxies. With guaranteed Russian veto, the UN is expected to become a diplomatic circus.
Venezuela turns to its main ally
The seven-page letter, sent to the presidency of the Council—currently held by Russia—accuses Washington of a “pattern of aggression” that includes deploying a naval fleet in the Caribbean and a complete halt to dialogues. The letter, published by the regime, compares the U.S. strategy to the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, arguing that the fight against drug trafficking is merely a “pretext” to create a casus belli.
This diplomatic effort is Caracas’ response to what it has called a high-voltage escalation. The Trump administration has intensified anti-drug operations in the Caribbean, with naval strikes resulting in casualties and the destruction of vessels. While the Pentagon describes these actions as “defense against narco-terrorists” operating under the regime’s protection, Caracas labels them as direct provocations. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports suggest that President Donald Trump has ordered military contingency plans and paused any negotiations with Maduro, prioritizing sanctions and military pressure.
In a televised speech, Maduro defiantly declared his willingness to declare a total state of emergency, supposedly mobilizing millions of militiamen and activating defense protocols. The key question remains: is Maduro’s move a genuine defensive concern, or a desperate bluff from a cornered regime?
The crisis is not isolated; it is the culmination of a maximum pressure cycle.
The United States has secured strategic allies, such as Grenada, to install high-tech radars and monitor cartel activities linked to the regime, including the Tren de Aragua, designated as a terrorist organization. Maduro, in response, has initiated a national mobilization, signing emergency decrees that grant him absolute powers over the economy and armed forces.
This confrontational dynamic, especially with Trump back in the White House in 2025, takes on a more unpredictable tone than any past episode, raising the risk of a fatal miscalculation.
Probable scenarios
Beyond the heated statements, this crisis serves as a multipolar chessboard where the interests of superpowers converge, alongside chavista internal propaganda and Washington’s electoral calculations.
Scenario 1: Surgical Strikes and Internal Collapse (The Trump Option)
Trump has reiterated his aversion to prolonged conflicts, focusing on “America First” and quick victories against clearly defined threats like drug trafficking. With a considerable fleet deployed (8 ships, a nuclear submarine, and thousands of support troops), Washington could opt for selective raids: limited military actions aimed at capturing regime elites or neutralizing critical infrastructure without a total occupation.
The likelihood of a large-scale invasion remains low. Experts estimate a 70% chance that any action will be limited to air and naval strikes aimed at forcing a negotiated exile for Maduro.
The Internal Factor: Venezuela is already bleeding without external aggression. Hyperinflation, military desertion, and opposition seeking to capitalize on U.S. actions and chaos could play a significant role. Many believe the regime could implode under the weight of sanctions and economic chaos within 6-12 months. Others argue that Venezuela may resemble a model similar to Iran, Cuba, North Korea, and others that have been pressured by sanctions yet have remained in power due to the criminal structure sustaining them.
Scenario 2: Proxy Escalation and Regional Chaos (The Authoritarian Axis)
If strikes escalate, the conflict could become proxy, drawing in allies of the regime.
Russia (The Veto): Presiding over the Security Council in October, Moscow has labeled U.S. actions as “provocations” and has pledged a guaranteed veto against any pro-intervention resolution. With interests in oil and a military, intelligence, and technological presence, Russia could accelerate the supply of defensive systems like S-400 missiles to diminish the effectiveness of air attacks.
China (The Financial Backing): Beijing, having invested over $60 billion in Venezuela, sees the country as a “strategic partner.” It has condemned U.S. “interference,” offering crucial economic and diplomatic support that buys time for Caracas, without directly committing militarily to avoid tensions on other fronts (like Taiwan).
The potential outcome of this scenario is a Caribbean in flames, with massive migration toward Colombia and Brazil, and the latent risk of Russian cyberattacks on sensitive U.S. infrastructure.
The Desperate Bluff: The Propaganda of the “Eternal Victim”
The letter to the UN is not merely diplomacy; it is a masterful exercise in propaganda.
Maduro desperately needs a “Yankee enemy” to survive. By portraying the nation as a peaceful victim of aggression, he unites the chavista base—temporarily boosting his approval ratings—and diverts attention from the economic collapse and the disdain Venezuelans have expressed towards chavismo. It’s a desperate bluff: without the narrative of external aggression, the regime loses internal cohesion and justification for repression.
Critics argue that Maduro, accused of narco-terrorism and massive human rights violations, uses this victim narrative to justify the state of exception and social control.
Trump and Pragmatism
President Trump has a pragmatic view of geopolitics. His actions—naval strikes, $50 million rewards for Maduro’s capture—are framed within his promise to combat drug cartels and terrorism. His policy prioritizes isolation and regime change without becoming entangled in a costly occupation that wouldn’t sit well with American citizens.
If Maduro does not cede, pressure will increase; if he does, Trump will be able to declare “mission accomplished” without having sent boots on the ground massively.
Within the framework of geopolitics, this crisis exposes the cracks in the multipolar order: the United States facing a Russia-China-Iran axis through proxies. The UN, with a guaranteed Russian veto, is anticipated to be a diplomatic circus.
Meanwhile, Latin America pays the price in instability and refugees. Regional leaders must negotiate through the OAS or CELAC before a fatal mistake occurs—such as the downing of a Venezuelan jet. A single incident could unleash regional hell.
Maduro is no victim; he is the architect of his chaos, and Trump is calculating. The world watches: will chavismo finally collapse or will the region burn with it?