The military presence of the United States in the Caribbean regarding the Cartel of the Suns seems to be primarily aimed at its most significant support: the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB). This force remains in a state of constant alert and increasing wear due to a sustained pattern of U.S. aerial and maritime operations.
This external pressure combines with a profound internal fracture and discontent, creating a dual scenario that weakens the institution. U.S. operations in the Caribbean over the past few months generate an atmosphere of unease that has spread within the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB).
In the high command and operational personnel of the FANB, it is now clear that the maritime and aerial actions of the U.S. are not isolated incidents but part of a systematic pattern designed to gauge and pressure the Venezuelan military apparatus.
These are not occasional actions but rather a calculated military presence aimed at keeping Venezuela—and particularly the FANB—under continuous scrutiny and monitoring. This strategy seeks to keep the Armed Forces and the regime of Nicolás Maduro—and thus the Cartel of the Suns—in a state of prolonged alert. The cost of this surveillance is the operational and psychological wear on the force.
A Military Presence Designed to Be Seen
There is no concealment; on the contrary, the aim is for all aerial and military operations to be visible, especially to the Cartel of the Suns, Nicolás Maduro’s regime, and its armed extension: the FANB.
U.S. flights—drones, planes, and aircraft—are conducted with their transponders—transmitter-receiver—activated, intended for all movements near Venezuelan airspace and territorial waters to be detected.
In other words, this is not an accidental occurrence because:
- The objective is to force responses, measure reaction times, study access routes, and understand Venezuela’s capability to detect threats.
- Measuring Response: This assesses the FANB’s response times on land, sea, and air.
- Evaluating Capability: This evaluates Venezuela’s ability to detect, engage, and react to a potential threat.
- Gathering Data: This examines entry and exit routes.
- Creating Wear: This compels the FANB to activate human and material resources.
The message of this repetitive pattern of approach, detection, alert, and withdrawal is unmistakable: the FANB is being watched and subjected to constant pressure. Although no open hostile maneuvers are recorded, the psychological effect is tangible: the United States observes, measures, and pressures.
FANB on the Edge: Fatigue, Overload, and Internal Fractures
This situation, which has been ongoing for several months, creates an effect precisely measured by the U.S.: the increasing deterioration within Venezuelan military ranks. The imposed rhythm to respond to these external incursions combines with internal pressures that erode morale:
- Repetitive military duty every Saturday.
- High-ranking officers forced to perform tasks unrelated to their roles.
- Logistical deficiencies.
- Widespread discontent in the institution.
- Fear regarding actions from the DGCIM, which has been criticized for abuses.
The perception is clear: the FANB feels exhausted, monitored, and utilized.
This generalized discomfort is compounded by the additional pressure imposed by the leaders tied to the Cartel of the Suns.
Many describe these duties as a “mandatory show” that deteriorates morale and interrupts operational functions. Militiamen with civilian jobs and officers without rest form an exhausted institution.
Areas Under Observation
U.S. aerial activity is especially concentrated in Falcón State, in western Venezuela, near Tocópero, leading to internal analyses about potential operational routes or tactical exploration.
Strategic areas of interest include:
- Maracara Beach (Puerto Cumarebo–Morrocoy), known for previous naval maneuvers.
- Machurucuto, an area historically linked to armed incursions.
- La Orchila, Blanquilla, and La Tortuga, frequent targets of overflights.
Moreover, the U.S. could receive support from Aruba, Curacao (NATO), Trinidad, and Tobago, which heightens the concerns of Venezuelan high command regarding a possible military operation.
Another analysis suggests that the flights may be part of systematic monitoring of drug trafficking, given the importance of these routes for the Cartel of the Suns’ structures. The western region of the country, a key area for the Cartel of the Suns, is also an epicenter of harassment and surveillance flights.
As if this were not enough, the FANB faces an additional burden from the Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM), which is internally criticized for abuses that increase the atmosphere of fear and resentment.
External Pressure and Internal Fractures: The Tension Point
In this context, the FANB faces a double threat:
- External: continuous U.S. surveillance, strategic mapping, and psychological harassment.
- Internal: accumulated discontent, intelligence abuses, and fractures arising from the military’s role in the Cartel of the Suns and national politics.
This combination creates uncertainty in the operational horizon of the FANB and leads to constant questioning: not about what the U.S. will do, but how long the Venezuelan military can endure their own internal wear.
Logistics and Conflict Scenarios
The FANB examines potential nearby support points that any projected U.S. military operation would require:
- Aruba and Curacao: territories of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and members of NATO. A Venezuelan military movement against these islands would activate automatic defensive obligations.
- Trinidad and Tobago: due to its strategic proximity for support operations.
- La Orchila or Margarita: islands with useful ports and airports, but limited defenses.
The Political Factor: Maduro, Opposition, and Uncertain Outcomes
The Nicolás Maduro regime, the Cartel of the Suns, and the military backing them show considerable wear. Therefore, they may pursue two possible exits:
- An international negotiation to alleviate pressure, or
- An external intervention that justifies an internal closure of freedoms.
The FANB is the main support of the Cartel of the Suns and Maduro’s regime, as we’ve pointed out several times. However, the military institution is trapped: if a confrontation with the U.S. were to occur, many military personnel recognize they would face not only an external power but also significant internal rejection from an increasingly organized civil society.
Meanwhile, the opposition—led by María Corina Machado—tries to influence within the military ranks, although it faces control structures created by Chavismo over two decades.
Possible Military and Political Scenarios
Though the United States maintains constant pressure, operations appear more directed toward creating wear—corrosion of the FANB—and gathering information than signaling an imminent intervention.
Thus, the scenarios may be varied and indicate that the fall of Nicolás Maduro by any means—coup, uprising, intervention—would result in sustained chaos, widespread violence, and a lack of command and control.
Even though U.S. military pressure has escalated, no clear plan exists for stabilizing Venezuela after a regime collapse. This power vacuum could pave the way for armed groups like the ELN, dissident factions of the FARC, and Chavista collectives, unleashing a prolonged conflict and potential massive exodus.
ScenarioIdentified Risks
Fall of Maduro – Institutional chaos and violence due to lack of unified command.
Escalation of U.S. Military Pressure – Increasing pressure without a clear plan for the “day after.”
Opposition Transition – Armed resistance and internal power fractures.
ELN and Collective Actions – Prolonged conflict and massive exodus.
Intervention and Stabilization – Need for tens of thousands of foreign troops.
The question remains as to how long the FANB can sustain internal wear and the growing fractures. But more importantly, what will occur first: an internal collapse or an external action that accelerates it.