Tension and uncertainty have dominated the atmosphere surrounding the presidential elections in Honduras since their announcement. Two days have passed, and it remains unclear who the winning candidate is. Could the involvement of foreign powers, such as Russia and the United States, influence the results?
The electoral process on November 30 highlighted massive citizen participation and a public demand for significant political change to end corruption. However, the elections were plagued by significant challenges, as accusations of manipulation by the leftist government to retain power arose both before and during the voting. This was coupled with widespread public discontent toward previous governments linked to drug trafficking and fraud.
The contest has taken on an unusual geopolitical dimension, evident in the protests from Moscow regarding U.S. actions and the close alliance between the ruling party and Venezuelan chavismo.
The main candidates, along with President Xiomara Castro, competed for votes in an environment marked by reports of fake polls and information warfare strategies aimed at influencing first-time voters. Amidst this tension, the ruling party even announced it would not recognize the preliminary results, while citizens felt this day was crucial for the future of the Central American nation.
Mass Participation
The presidential elections in Honduras were characterized by high levels of voter turnout, driven by a deep desire for political change to combat corruption stagnation. A crucial factor in this election was the inclusion of approximately 800,000 new adult voters, a historic figure that could completely sway the electoral outcome.
Long lines of voters braved adverse weather conditions, which citizens and analysts interpreted as a reflection of the widespread yearning for a change in direction in a country that has faced governments linked to drug trafficking and corruption in recent legislatures.
The process unfolded in a high-tension atmosphere, marked by a complex geopolitical duel involving influences from the United States, Venezuela, and Russia.
Liberal candidate Salvador Nasralla emerged as the favorite according to unofficial polls, while the ruling party, led by the Zelaya family, employed tactics to maintain power, including disqualifying opponents and proactively announcing they would not recognize preliminary results. As of now, a technical tie exists between Nasralla and Nasry Asfura—who is backed by the U.S.—so every vote is crucial for the final tally.
Irregularities and Disinformation Warfare
The competition was also marred by a disinformation war on social media, as well as an unprecedented number of new voters whose impact is potentially decisive.
This battle is being fought not only at the ballot box but also on social media, which has become the primary source of data. An intense information war is designed to influence voter perceptions and, potentially, outcomes.
Political machines illegally aired supposed exit polls on social media at midday to declare early victories. A Zelaya associate claimed, “We are 10 points ahead according to Gallup.”
In contrast, a digital poll positioned Nasralla as the winner in 11 of the 18 departments, while betting house Polymarket gave him around 59% of support.
According to Mario Serna, founder of Honduras Verifica, these tactics primarily targeted the new electorate. He warned that “false or uncontrolled polls serve as part of a strategic information war designed to shape emotions, alter perceptions, and ultimately affect citizen participation.”
The ruling party’s and military chief’s statements added fuel to the fire by announcing they would not recognize the initial data from the CNE, a significant maneuver aimed at obscuring the process and generating uncertainty.
Contested Positions and International Observation
More than six million Hondurans were eligible to vote. This election day will be decisive for the future of the Central American nation, defining not only the new president but also other key positions.
ConceptoCifras y datos claveElected PositionsPresident and three vice presidents. 128 parliamentary deputies and their substitutes. 298 municipal mayors and deputy mayors. ObserversMore than 4,000 national and international observers.International OrganizationsPresence of delegations from the European Union (EU), the Organization of American States (OAS), and U.S. congressmen.
The Parties in Contest
The contest was dominated by tension between the leftist ruling party and a fragmented opposition, marked by cross accusations and political maneuvers that defined the day’s tone.
The ruling party, represented by the LIBRE Party, led by President Xiomara Castro, who described the day as “a civic celebration,” and her husband, ex-President Mel Zelaya, adopted a more confrontational stance, directly attacking the favored candidate: “Trump is the one who best defined Salvador Nasralla’s twisted personality (…), an unreliable opportunist.”
The ruling party and its allies announced they would not recognize the CNE’s preliminary results, adding more tension to the process.
An alliance between the Honduran ruling party and chavismo was evident, including the involvement of Venezuelan influencers in their campaign.
Salvador Nasralla, the Liberal candidate and a 72-year-old journalist, emerged as the frontrunner in the polls. He expressed confidence in his victory and accused the ruling party of trying to buy votes: “With the money they stole, they are offering 12,000 pesos (400 euros) per vote.”
Official candidate Rixi Moncada actively participated on election day but remains in third place in the vote count, far behind the nearly 40 percent each that Nasralla and Asfura are competing for.
Nasry Asfura, the National Party candidate, known as “Trump’s friend,” is one of the top three contenders and holds a lead in the preliminary results.
The Role of the Armed Forces
General Roosvelt Hernández, head of the Joint Staff of Honduras, repeated the ruling party’s stance of not recognizing the preliminary results. His presence was noted amid the “megafraud orchestrated” by Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
The president of the CNE, Ana Paola Hall, issued a direct warning: “It is in your hands to guide constitutionalism down a democratic path.”
Geopolitical Dynamics and International Influence
The presidential elections in Honduras transcended national boundaries, becoming a stage for broader geopolitical interests.
Influence of the United States:
The relationship with the U.S. is a central axis for Honduras, whose main economic resource comes from remittances of between 1.5 and 2 million emigrants living there. Donald Trump’s figure emerged during the campaign, used by Mel Zelaya to attack Nasralla and directly associated with candidate Nasry Asfura.
Intervention from Russia:
In an unprecedented move for the Central American country, Moscow intervened through an official spokesperson to protest what it considered “maneuvers by the U.S. president,” placing Honduras on a global dispute board.
Alliance with Venezuela:
The Zelaya faction maintains a close alliance with chavismo, underscored by the support of Venezuelan media figures for their campaign.