The attack on the Cartel of the Suns by the United States government continues unabated, as advanced technology and naval blockades have successfully neutralized the Venezuelan National Armed Forces. This situation has compelled Nicolás Maduro’s regime to establish a praetorian guard for internal protection.
Security expert José Humberto García stated this during an interview with Venezuela Política and Sin Filtros, where he analyzed the Venezuelan crisis through a medical analogy, describing Maduro’s regime as a cancerous tumor that requires precise surgical intervention rather than violent attacks.
He explained that the United States has opted for a gradual economic and military isolation strategy to weaken the finances of the Cartel of the Suns and its territorial control without destroying the nation.
García emphasized that dismantling this transnational criminal corporation is complex due to its constant adaptation to external pressures. He called for patience and optimism, arguing that the destruction of power networks must be tactical to avoid greater social chaos.
U.S. Surgical Therapy Against the Cartel of the Suns
José Humberto García discussed with Venezuela Política and Sin Filtros the current U.S. strategy toward Nicolás Maduro’s regime and the Cartel of the Suns in Venezuela, which he described as a “surgical” and methodical operation, contrasting it with direct and rapid military intervention. “Venezuela is a patient with a malignant brain tumor. The ‘tumor’ is Maduro’s regime.”
He warned that this is not a conventional cartel but rather a “large corporation of transnational crime” that has completely co-opted state institutions, including the Armed Forces.
The goal is to remove the cancer without killing the patient. This approach is based on a gradual process of isolation and strangulation aimed at dismantling the transnational criminal corporation that controls the Venezuelan state.
Surgical therapy versus a “hack”: a direct and massive military intervention would result in the patient’s death, namely, the Venezuelan nation. This could generate uncontrollable chaos, similar to what occurred in Mexico after Félix Gallardo’s capture, where subordinate cartels waged war against each other.
The therapeutic process: the correct strategy is a slow and methodical treatment, akin to radiotherapy and chemotherapy. It consists of isolating, reducing, and weakening the tumor’s “tentacles” before proceeding to a final extraction. The objective is to preserve the patient’s life while keeping the country relatively stable to allow for the “re-injection” of democratic opposition forces.
The U.S. operation is multifaceted and aims to attack the variables that sustain the regime, specifically its capacity for repression, its economic revenue, and its institutional control.
Military Isolation and Territorial Control
The United States established effective control over Venezuela’s air and maritime space, permitting the neutralization of the regime’s capacity to operate in the Caribbean by cutting off its primary source of income from drug trafficking.
The presence of destroyers capable of launching Tomahawk missiles (with a range of 1600 km) and aircraft carriers such as the USS Gerald R. Ford has resulted in the total loss of the regime’s control over its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone in the Caribbean. The Cartel of the Suns has lost control of La Orchila and Los Roques and cannot move vessels without them being destroyed.
This maritime control eliminated what is estimated to be between 50% and 60% of the regime’s revenue: cocaine trafficking.
García explained that F-18 Growler aircraft penetrated Venezuelan airspace to conduct electromagnetic warfare attacks, blocking the regime’s security forces’ radio communications (UHF/VHF frequencies), demonstrating their vulnerability. The military leadership’s reliance on civilian applications such as flightradar24.com to monitor their airspace highlights the obsolescence of their defense systems.
Economic Strangulation
Executing an aggressive campaign to intercept the “ghost fleet” transporting sanctioned Venezuelan oil, thus aiming to “dry up” the regime’s cash flow.
After cutting off the drug trafficking revenue, the focus shifted to preventing oil sales, another vital source of financing.
Interception of the “ghost fleet” through an offensive to stop and capture vessels that transport Venezuelan oil in violation of sanctions. These ships operate by turning off their transponders or using flags of convenience.
Skipper: a stateless vessel (illegally claiming to fly the Guyana flag) that was stopped and deemed a “pirate ship.” Its cargo was confiscated and taken to Galveston, Texas.
Centurion: a Chinese-owned ship registered in Panama. It was boarded with Panama’s consent, avoiding a major diplomatic incident.
Vela 1: an Iranian vessel that refused to be boarded but is part of the general offensive to stop all exports.
Diplomatic and Institutional Isolation
Execution of a campaign to dismantle the regime’s international support network and destroy its legitimacy.
• International pressure: the work of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, among other figures, is key.
• Changing stances: Spain no longer actively defends the regime, and the Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago harshly criticized CARICOM for “serving Maduro and his regime.” This statement from a key Caribbean nation is an indicator of the success of the isolation process.
Response of Maduro’s Regime
José Humberto García estimated that Maduro’s regime—and consequently the Cartel of the Suns—has displayed its nature as a “complex adaptive system,” reorganizing internally for survival. The main manifestation of this adaptation is the expansion of the Presidential Honor Guard into a “praetorian guard” with firepower equivalent to a division, whose sole purpose is to protect Maduro and his inner circle, concentrating military resources in Caracas at the expense of national defense.
He noted that, geopolitically, the regime is becoming increasingly isolated. Support from Russia and China is largely symbolic and does not represent real intervention capabilities, while the United States reaffirms its influence in the region under a “Monroe Doctrine 2.0”.
According to García, the way forward is not through military confrontation but through the selective and gradual destruction of the Cartel of the Suns’ power networks, targeting about 300 key figures to avoid a chaotic collapse of the country and allow for a process of reinstitutionalization.
This process requires patience, an understanding of the complexity of the conflict, and psychological resilience against the regime’s disinformation campaigns.
Nature of the Cartel of the Suns
José Humberto García asserted that the Venezuelan regime is not a traditional dictatorship but a “complex adaptive system,” characterized by its resilience and its ability to reorganize in the face of external pressures.
The system operates as a school of fish: there is no single leader in absolute control, but the entire organism moves with its own dynamics and coordination. The key variables keeping it together are:
Repression and violence capacity.
Economic revenue.
Control of institutions.
Capacity for adaptation and coordination (the most important).
García explained that the U.S. strategy consists of attacking the first three variables to force the system to a breaking point in its capacity for adaptation.
He indicated that the internal adaptation of Maduro’s regime and the Cartel of the Suns is evident in actions such as the expansion of the Presidential Honor Guard. Feeling isolated from the outside, the regime reorganized internally to consolidate its power and prepare for a “war of resistance.”
This unit transitioned from a company to a division, as what was once a ceremonial unit expanded into a combat force equivalent to a division, estimated at 3,500 to 5,000 soldiers.
Structure of the new “Praetorian Guard”:
Leadership: under the control of Major General Javier Marcano Tábata.
New Brigade: the creation of the “Gran Mariscal de Ayacucho” Brigade.
New battalions: five special forces battalions and one drone battalion were assigned.
The explicit goal of this is to protect the president and the political class. To form this force, brigades from the regular army in states like Zulia, Miranda, and Barinas were dismantled to transfer personnel and armaments to Fuerte Tiuna in Caracas, weakening the nation’s defense to strengthen the regime’s defense.
This guard and youth militias are being equipped with modern automatic weaponry, such as Norinco 56 rifles (equivalent to AK-103) and Iranian rifles, preparing for a war of attrition. This force is referred to as a “DGCIM 2.0.”
Geopolitical Context and External Support
José Humberto García pointed out that the situation in Venezuela is part of a global reordering that ultimately works against the regime.
Limited external support: the backing from Russia, China, and Iran is superficial. Their power projection capabilities in Venezuela are minimal and limited to sending light weapons.
Allies’ priorities: Russia is focused on Ukraine and its confrontation with NATO. China is centered on the Pacific and a possible reunification with Taiwan. Venezuela is not a strategic priority for them.
The Monroe Doctrine 2.0: the latest U.S. national security document reaffirms the principle of “America for Americans,” indicating that the region is a priority interest for the U.S. and that hostile extraterritorial influences will not be tolerated. This represents a correction of the historical error that allowed Cuba to consolidate as a Soviet satellite.
Cuban influence: Cuba does not have a massive military presence in Venezuela but acts as the regime’s “lymphatic system.” Cuban agents are infiltrated at all levels, communicating information, detecting dissent, and aiding in reorganizing the system for its survival. The circle of security closest to Maduro consists of Cubans.
Future Scenarios
José Humberto García’s analysis concludes that the conflict’s outcome will not be immediate, nor will it occur through conventional military action, but rather through the culmination of the surgical process already underway.
The final objective is to dismantle the Cartel of the Suns without destroying the country, meaning a progressive and selective attack on the system’s key nodes.
He specified that the Cartel of the Suns is composed of multiple factions or “tribes” with different functions: repression (Presidential Guard), drug trafficking (at least three distinct tribes), economic (the group of Álex Saab and the Rodríguez brothers), and criminal groups like the Tren de Aragua.
Removing the cartel’s heads abruptly (like Vladimir Padrino López, who acts as a “stabilizing element”) would provoke an internal war between these tribes. The correct strategy is to gradually eliminate the cartel’s “management”—composed of about 300 key individuals—to open space for the country’s reinstitutionalization.
He stated that the United States has identified these figures, as evidenced by OFAC sanctions against Cilia Flores’ circle, including individuals like Malpica and Carretero.
Need for Patience and Psychological Resilience
José Humberto García described this process as dynamic and non-deterministic, similar to a poker game where probabilities are recalculated with each move. The United States controls the timing.
García called for not giving in to despair or the regime’s disinformation campaigns, which aim to “discourage and deactivate” society.
He expressed that although the process is slow, it is progressing in the right direction. The goal is to achieve an orderly transition that allows for the reconstruction of Venezuela, a country that is “a patient in intensive care” but can recover with the right treatment. The fight continues, and clarity about objectives and methods is greater than ever.