The genuine democratic transition in Venezuela relies on the re-establishment of institutions in the country, as well as the definitive end of the current state kidnapping model, which keeps the nation in a climate of institutional uncertainty that necessitates dismantling repression to regain economic and legal sovereignty.
This view is held by political analyst Genaro Mosquera, who examined the profound political instability in Venezuela following the displacement of the illegitimate regime of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent establishment of a provisional administration led by Delcy Rodríguez under the oversight of the United States government.
Mosquera characterizes this scenario of institutional uncertainty as the coexistence of a dual official discourse alongside the strategic intervention of powers like the United States.
He details the existence of a power triumvirate in dispute, composed of weakened military factions, paramilitary groups, and an interim leadership that oscillates between submission and revolutionary rhetoric. This narrative emphasizes the decay of military command, which is urgent to dismantle.
Political Transition in Venezuela
A complex political situation governs Venezuela following the ousting of the “illicit president” Nicolás Maduro, with the subsequent establishment of a provisional government under Delcy Rodríguez, directly influenced by the U.S. administration.
The democratic transition in Venezuela depends on re-establishment, as previously mentioned, due to the profound rupture and uncertainty that these events have caused. This is a model where governance is marked by tutelage exercised by the United States, specifically the administration of Donald Trump and the CIA.
Political analyst Genaro Mosquera holds that, despite the change in leadership, a power structure committed to the practices of the former regime persists, which includes the persecution of opponents and corrupt military control. Mosquera observes a phenomenon of dual discourse, in which the provisional government adheres to external directives to transition toward a liberal economy, while publicly maintaining a revolutionary and sovereignist rhetoric.
It is urgent, therefore, for the future stability of the country to re-establish institutions, disarm paramilitary groups—known as the colectivos—and overcome the popular inertia caused by years of fear and survival.
The Tutelage Framework of the United States
Genaro Mosquera describes the political transition in Venezuela not as an autonomous process but as a tutelary measure designed to prevent an absolute power vacuum and curb the prevailing anti-democratic socialist model since chavismo assumed power.
The U.S. administration under Donald Trump plays a tutelary role to halt the previous system. This tutelage manifests in the control of economic and aeronaval blockades, as well as direct actions against drug trafficking and irregular oil trade.
Moreover, CIA Director John Ratcliffe is the figure from whom direct instructions emanate to the provisional presidency.
Mosquera recalled that through a “flash force” military operation, the capture and extraction of the former commander-in-chief, Nicolás Maduro, was achieved from the most important military installation in Venezuela, without the need for a full invasion. This action, documented and processed by international and U.S. justice, succeeded in overthrowing the previous power.
Structure of Provisional Power and the “Triumvirate”
The void left by Maduro’s regime has been filled by a provisional structure generating internal controversies, as well as an “unusual distribution of power,” warns Genaro Mosquera.
He states that an artificial triumvirate has formed, a power-sharing scheme composed of three main factions:
Provisional Presidency: Held by former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, theoretically appointed to provide operational stability. Her management is conditioned by the indirect handling of oil revenues under external supervision.
Paramilitary Faction: Led by Diosdado Cabello, who claims to wield power based on paramilitary forces with the capacity to destabilize the nation.
Military Formality: A leadership position held by Vladimir Padrino López, who attempts to demonstrate confidence and responsiveness, although his reputation has been compromised following the extraction of his leader under his custody.
Genaro Mosquera highlights the contradictions within this administration, characterized by the fact that much of the ousted executive remains in civil and military administration positions for convenience.
At the same time, he underscores the rhetorical hypocrisy of this provisional government, as there exists a gap between private actions and public declarations.
Public Discourse (narrative)Operational Reality (realpolitik) National sovereignty and “eternal revolution.”Obedience to the directives of the tutor (CIA/U.S.). Promises of salary increases and dollarization.Need to open up to a liberal economy and international markets. Nationalism and rejection of imperialism.Submission and obedience to the external tutor.
The Armed Forces and Internal Security
Genaro Mosquera emphasizes that the military institution is experiencing a process of erosion and mistrust, due to the discredit of the General Staff, perceived as complicit in a corrupt regime more interested in economic gains from oil, gold, food, and drug trafficking than in defending the Constitution.
He notes that following Maduro’s “extraction,” there exists a widespread fear within official ranks regarding the possibility of further captures. A replacement of generals has begun, many already marked by corruption.
He adds that Cuban military tutelage has been diminished and is in retreat, while equipment from Russia, China, and Iran has failed to prevent military failure against external strategic actions.
However, Mosquera warns that the threat of the colectivos remains as they maintain power in the neighborhoods. He alerts that the provisional leadership lacks the will to disarm them, which poses a critical risk to future stability.
Economic and Social Challenges
Genaro Mosquera reiterates that the main challenge for the democratic transition in Venezuela hinges on re-establishment.
He specifies that the country is going through a compulsory economic transition due to external pressure but is hindered by governmental improvisation.
The challenges are:
Transition to Liberalism: The provisional presidency must abandon socialist schemes to connect with liberal markets, seeking to normalize the economy and open up the oil sector.
Social Instability: The streets continue to experience repression. Mosquera describes a “revolving door” system for political prisoners: some are released on conditional freedom while others are arrested simply for expressing joy at the regime change.
Popular Inertia: The population finds itself in a state of survival and fear, a result of the previous kidnapping of the country by external forces, namely terrorist groups, drug traffickers, and foreign command in barracks.
Necessary Conditions for Democratization
Genaro Mosquera concludes that to achieve the “expected normalcy,” the provisional government must meet several fundamental requirements:
Re-establishment: Reinvent political parties and create a new transparent electoral system.
Legitimate Elections: Prepare the groundwork to elect a new National Assembly and, eventually, a democratically elected government.
Justice: Formulate trials against torturers and human rights violators, and judge the “key figures” of the previous regime.
Security Reform: Disarm the colectivos, dismantle repressive apparatuses, and justly reorganize the armed forces.
Real Economic Reform: Achieve a manageable price economy under the existing dollarization structure, ensuring it is accessible to the average citizen.
“We are living in times of rupture, uncertainty, and popular inertia fueled by fear and survival. We need true change and the end of a model that has kidnapped a nation,” Mosquera asserts.
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