Yesterday’s news was tremendous. It was clear it was only a matter of time before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) ruled in favor of Leopoldo. This decision is critically important, not just in Venezuela, where the regime must now add hundreds of people to its lists of enemies who could realistically take away governorships, mayoralties, seats, and deputies in future elections, but also on a hemispheric level. The court has declared the Chavista practice of using the courts for political persecution illegal. A precedent has been set. From now on, Chavez and his regional puppets will have to either come up with another scheme or declare themselves dictators to ignore the binding rulings of the IACHR. Moving forward, persecuted politicians and those illegally disqualified will only need to cite the decision in the Lopez Mendoza vs. Venezuela case to highlight the totalitarianism masked by yellow banners from leaders like Chavez.
Now, where things get interesting is in the local landscape. Yesterday’s decision is crucial as it has given Leopoldo a historic opportunity, one that will define the rest of his political career. While Chavez dilly-dallies and decides how to maneuver his Supreme Court, Leopoldo represents the key piece for the opposition’s triumph in October 2012.
The coup-maker and his Cuban masters are undoubtedly calculating the “Lopez effect” in a potential division of opposition votes. The question they must be asking is: if Henrique Capriles wins the opposition primaries, how many votes will Leopoldo take away from Henrique? This questions operates on the premise that Leopoldo aims to be president and won’t step aside for a unitary candidacy unless it involves him as the sole candidate. Leopoldo has forged a reputation as a leader. His time with PJ and UNT showed a certain indication that he isn’t a “team player,” but someone convinced of his own infallibility, willing to bulldoze anyone or anything if things don’t align with his goals at any given moment.
However, Leopoldo’s political past should not be a roadblock in the restoration of democracy in Venezuela. If I were Leopoldo, this would be my plan. Regardless of Chavez’s orders to his judges, and, more importantly, whenever they decide to lift the illegal disqualification, I would form a pact with opposition candidates and parties. Whoever wins, if my candidacy isn’t accepted by the CNE until after the primary process is complete, I wouldn’t divide the opposition vote but rather add the votes I can bring and my machinery to the candidate who wins the primaries. Whoever that may be. Of course, this promise and contribution would need to be properly rewarded in a future administration, whether as Vice President or any position of my choosing.
The IACHR has given Leopoldo the power to decide who will be the next president of Venezuela. Leopoldo, not Chavez, is the new “king maker” in Venezuela. If his presidential ambitions and ego prevail, it is highly likely Chavez will be “elected” again for another six-year term. History will surely punish such selfishness in this grim hour. Conversely, if Leopoldo chooses to channel his efforts toward restoring peace, democracy, and the rule of law in Venezuela, ensuring whoever represents the opposition wins the elections, there is no doubt he will become the president of Venezuela, either in 2012 or in 2018.
At just 40 years old, the one who is most positioned to be indecisive is not the commander president, precisely.