Huge news from yesterday! It was only a matter of time before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) ruled in favor of Leopoldo. This decision is extremely significant, not just in Venezuela, where the regime has to add hundreds of individuals to its list of enemies who could potentially take governorships, mayorships, and other positions in future elections, but also at a hemispheric level. The court has made it illegal for the Chavista regime to use the judiciary for political persecution. A precedent has been set. Moving forward, Chávez and his regional puppets will either have to come up with another method or declare themselves dictators to disregard the binding rulings of the IACHR. From now on, persecuted politicians who have been illegally disqualified will only need to cite the case López Mendoza vs. Venezuela to demonstrate the totalitarian nature of leaders like Chávez.
Now, things are getting interesting on the local front. Yesterday’s decision is critical, as it has given Leopoldo a historic opportunity that will define the rest of his political career. While Chávez plays games with his Supreme Court in one way or another, Leopoldo stands as the key piece for the opposition’s victory in the October 2012 elections.
The coup plotter and his Cuban handlers are undoubtedly measuring the “Lopez effect” on a possible division of opposition votes. The question they must be asking is: if Henrique Capriles wins the opposition primaries, how many votes will Leopoldo take away from him? This question assumes that Leopoldo wants to be president and won’t withdraw from a unifying candidacy unless he is the sole candidate. Leopoldo has indeed built a reputation as a caudillo. His time with PJ and UNT indicated that he is not a “team player,” but someone convinced of his infallibility, willing to disregard anything or anyone if things do not align with his objectives.
However, Leopoldo’s political past shouldn’t be an obstacle to restoring democracy in Venezuela. If I were Leopoldo, here’s what I’d do. Regardless of what Chávez orders his judges, and, more importantly, when they decide to lift the illegal disqualification, I would make a pact with opposition candidates and parties. No matter who wins, if my candidacy isn’t accepted by the CNE until after the primary process, I wouldn’t split the opposition vote; instead, I’d add whatever votes I can bring, along with my machinery, to the winning candidate in the primaries. Whoever that may be. Of course, such a promise and contribution would need to be adequately rewarded in a future administration, whether with a Vice Presidency or any other position of my choosing.
The IACHR has given Leopoldo the power to decide who the next president of Venezuela will be. Leopoldo, not Chávez, is the new “king maker” in Venezuela. If his presidential ambitions and ego take precedence, it’s very likely that Chávez will be “elected” for another 6-year term. History will undoubtedly punish such selfishness in these dark times. Conversely, if Leopoldo chooses to join efforts to restore peace, democracy, and the rule of law in Venezuela, and ensure that whoever represents the opposition wins the elections, there’s no doubt he will be president of Venezuela, in 2012, or in 2018.
At just 40 years old, the one who is truly in a position to be indecisive is not the Commander President.