London 12.07.2012 | “You have no idea how much things have changed in recent years. People are angry, stubborn. Do you know what it’s like to go to the supermarket and see endless lines for the same detergent? The same powdered milk, when you can find it? The same flour? There’s nothing to buy. On top of that, you have to pray to the saints every time you step outside, because you don’t know if you’ll come back alive. The issue of insecurity and kidnappings has spiraled out of control under the regime. The thieves are the police themselves. That idolization people had for Chavez? That’s over, man. Now people go to official marches, collect their money, and leave that fool talking to himself, just like they did in Plaza Caracas when he went to register at the CNE.”
This description comes from one of the many recent conversations with a visiting relative. In his view, Capriles has a chance to defeat Chavez in the elections. Daniel Duquenal, whose opinions I hold in high regard, shares this perspective.
As for me, I can’t help but be astonished by such hope, which they say is the last to die, and in Venezuela’s case seems to confirm this theory. I can’t harbor such hope. My reasons are clear for everyone to see. Namely: Chavez continues to control all powers, all institutions, all the money, all the arms, and all the voting machines. The opposition still can’t be sure whether the nearly 19 million registered in the REP actually exist. Despite the irresponsible and false claims of Ramon Guillermo Aveledo—a dinosaur from the 4th Republic who no one knows how or by whom was elected to his position in the MUD—the reality is that the opposition hasn’t audited the electoral system, hasn’t audited the REP, and doesn’t know if it has polling station witnesses for all voting centers, thus leaving them incapable of monitoring what will happen on October 7th.
That said, I estimate that Henrique Capriles has between 3.7 and 5 million votes in his pocket. Let’s remember that Manuel Rosales got 3.7 million votes in the last presidential election in 2006. It would be foolish to think he won’t achieve at least the same number of votes as Rosales. Despite the supposed worsening of conditions in Venezuela across the board since 2006, which would indicate increased vulnerability for the caudillo in the upcoming elections, it’s important for me to keep in mind what happened back then.
The massive registration of Capriles’ candidacy, which everyone saw as a sign of victory, should not confuse or excite anyone. The photo on the right is from a Rosales march in 2006. I understand—because I lived it—that people get excited and think, given such gatherings, that the opposition is in the majority. Nevertheless, I must warn that large gatherings do not bring down dictatorships. And before any reader thinks of refuting this and bringing up the Arab Spring, it is essential to remember that what happened in those countries was very different from the peaceful gatherings that occur, and have occurred, in Venezuela. In 2006, I saw millions of citizens show their support for Rosales all over Venezuela. Millions. In Caracas, Maracaibo, Valencia, Barquisimeto, Merida, Maracay… Moreover, I would dare say that I have the best photographic collection of marches in post-1998 Venezuela. I didn’t hear it from others; I witnessed it, and I must admit it was one of the most wonderful experiences of my life. That crowd is hopeful. But then came December 3rd, and Chavez won by a landslide. His marches, paid for and mandatory for public employees, drew less than half of the people. However, he garnered more than two million votes than Rosales. Days later, in a meeting with Leopoldo Lopez and Benigno Alarcón, I learned that the opposition had no witnesses in 40% of the 32,000 polling stations, mostly in rural Venezuela.
It’s 2012. Venezuelans, no matter how much they complain about the current situation, are not willing to behave like Tunisians, Egyptians, or Libyans. The same applies to the Venezuelan opposition, which believes that repeating the same strategy from 2006 will yield different results in 2012. Six years have passed. During this time, the only politician who has actively campaigned across Venezuela is Leopoldo Lopez, and he isn’t even a candidate. The others remain relatively unknown outside their spheres of influence. Thus, the people from Zulia, Eastern Venezuela, los Andes, and the Llanos know little about Capriles’ work as governor in Miranda, just as they didn’t know Rosales in 2006. Capriles’ “house-to-house” campaigning is no different from the tours Rosales took in 2006. The marches will be just as massive, give or take a few people. He will still face gunfire— to intimidate him. They’ll block his entry to the same neighborhoods. They’ll cut the power in the same cities— so people won’t hear his speech. They’ll prevent him from landing at the same airports. He’ll be allowed to speak only the same 3 minutes each day. The same degenerate international left will criticize him. The same polling firms will rank him 20 points behind the dying caudillo. In other words, the script is exactly the same. We’ve lived it, and for those who are unaware, I invite you to review this archive (between September 14 and December 5, 2006). A warned soldier is not killed, and if he is, it’s due to his foolishness!
The questions we need to ask ourselves—and ask those who run the MUD—the same faces and names as in 2006—are:
How many witnesses have been trained in rural Venezuela?
How many voting centers are there in rural Venezuela?
How many of those already have the necessary witnesses?
What control does the MUD have over the appointment of polling witnesses by the CNE?
When will the CNE deliver the REP to the MUD for an audit?
When, where, and who is in charge of auditing the Smartmatic machines, the fingerprint scanners, and the rest of the electronic voting system?
What will be the MUD’s involvement in counting and totalizing the votes?
What control does the MUD have over inviting international observers?
Once they answer us in detail those questions and others, we might dare to hope. Because if we are present at all polling stations and participate in all counts, according to the LOSPP, we can know for sure whether Chavez won or not. I still believe that if we are present everywhere, Chavez will have to prove he has the votes, that he has the people, that he won fairly. Otherwise, he might flip the table once exposed.