CLOSING THOUGHTS. I stumbled across a video clip of Diosdado Cabello’s speech during a women’s march advocating for the release of Maduro and Cilia. What caught my attention? Just one shocking remark: he claimed that Chávez had been killed. Was it a mistake or a slip of the tongue? Probably yes, but it’s interesting that he never recanted that statement. It felt important to mention. What do you think, dear reader?
TRANSITION. It’s undeniable that the early information emerging from the United States, primarily via Donald Trump, regarding the transition in Venezuela stirred discomfort and confusion. Everything seemed unclear. It truly was confusing because appointing Delcy Rodríguez as acting president was a poor signal; fundamentally, with the captures of Maduro and Cilia, nothing else changed in the country. The same thieves and henchmen were still seemingly in control. A peak moment was when Trump dismissed María Corina Machado, disregarding her evident leadership. Was this a translation issue or simply misinformation? Or is it his genuine opinion of her? As has happened in previous instances involving Trump, another official had to clarify what he meant, but ultimately he didn’t provide a clear explanation. Regarding the transition in Venezuela, it was prudent to await Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s clarifications. Although MAGA fans may not want to admit it, Marco Rubio has been the driving force behind the “maximum pressure” strategy against the Venezuelan regime. He promoted the theory of ousting the criminal organization that seized Venezuela, countering Richard Grenell’s negotiation proposal. Rubio, along with the hard-line Republicans—especially the group dubbed “the crazy Cubans”—kept the pressure on with the aim of removing Maduro and Chavismo from power. Therefore, he is crucial to understand the trajectory of the U.S. plan to initiate a transition in Venezuela. These uncertainties were clarified when Marco Rubio detailed the strategy on “Face the Nation” on CBS News. One notable line was: “All the problems we had with Maduro when he was in power, we still have and must address,” dispelling any doubts about whether the operation concluded with the arrest of the presidential couple. Rubio also clarified the U.S. government’s opinion on María Corina Machado and why they didn’t place her at the forefront of a transition: “Machado is fantastic, someone I have known for a long time, but we are dealing with immediate reality. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the opposition is no longer within Venezuela. We have short-term problems that need immediate attention. We all want to see a bright future for Venezuela, a transition to democracy; those are great things we all want to see.” When asked if the U.S. aimed to govern Venezuela, he stated: “It’s not about ‘governing’ the country in that sense. It’s about policies. We want Venezuela to move in a certain direction, as we believe it’s not only good for the people of Venezuela, but it’s in our national interest. It addresses something that poses a threat to our national security or that is beneficial or harmful.” Regarding what’s next, he said: “We will give people the opportunity to address these challenges and problems. Until they do, they will continue facing this oil quarantine. They will keep facing U.S. pressure. We will keep targeting drug ships if they attempt to head towards the United States. We will continue seizing ships sanctioned by court orders.” Rubio did not stop there; during his testimony before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday, he elaborated further on the strategy, outlining four stages: stabilization, recovery, and transition. Amid his remarks, he made a striking comment: “We don’t want this to descend into chaos,” clearly indicating that the U.S. plans to initiate the dismantling of Chavismo to lay the groundwork for a transition that is less complicated than anticipated, while also addressing some of the grave issues plaguing the country. Could this be the solution to the Venezuelan crisis? It’s an interesting topic for discussion. Based on Marco Rubio’s statements and the analysis of prominent experts, the current landscape has become much clearer, aiming to stabilize the country, ensure “apparent” governance, and guide it towards true democratization with elections that could, or rather should, happen this year. Of course, words can mean anything, and the evolution of events will reveal if we are on the right path or if the country will remain submerged in the mire of Chavismo. A major concern is the regime’s actions, as the U.S. government claims they are cooperating for an efficient transition, yet Delcy Eloína publicly presents a defiant image and seems unwilling to collaborate. Additionally, there’s another significant issue: the transition could be jeopardized by internal grievances within Chavismo, intensified by the “betrayal game” that accelerated with the detention of Maduro and Cilia, but we’ll analyze that further in this column.
SHOCK? I’m not an expert in these matters, but I sense that Nicolás Maduro is in a sort of shock state following his arrest, and I hope the actual experts excuse my potential error. He seems somewhat disoriented, although this could be mistaken for lack of concern. It appears he hasn’t grasped that he’s fallen into a hole from which there’s no escape. That’s why he smiles, greets people, wishes everyone a happy new year, and even signals that he’s fine, when his life of freedom has ended forever. He has yet to come to terms with his harsh reality. This harsh reality isn’t just the fact that he will live the rest of his life in a cold prison in the United States; he seems unaware that those he thought were closest and most loyal to him have betrayed him. Likely, due to his near isolation, he doesn’t even know that he has been subject to a political betrayal that will surely be documented by history. In his mind, he must be imagining that the Venezuelan people are out demanding his release and that there’s a full strategy in place to secure his freedom, even needing to resort to force. The most telling sign of his disconnect from reality is when he claimed in court that he remained the president of Venezuela, despite never being that during the past year since he rigged the 2024 elections. The worst part is when he learns about the betrayal, which is bound to happen very soon, he may sink into a deep depression. But once he finally comes to terms with the harsh reality he faces, far removed from the luxuries he once enjoyed, he will likely realize that the only path left to alleviate the justice system’s punishment and take revenge on those who betrayed him is through collaboration to provide information in exchange for a leniency in his sentence and his confinement conditions. At that point, he can seek vengeance on those who sold him out, as they all have extensive criminal records. The time will come when Maduro understands that his only remaining option is to betray those who betrayed him. Betrayal is paid back with more betrayal. When will Nicolás’s revenge begin? He could very well become the great whistleblower.
TOP SECRET (I). Even though it appears that Chavismo is experiencing its final decline, we must continue the task of exposing the many, oh so many, businesses they’ve engaged in to plunder the country’s riches. I received an intelligence report that is further proof that, against these criminals, one cannot lose the ability to be shocked; the very least of them leaves a path of ruin. Why the shock? The report is titled: “Knob Trading and Bernal’s connection in the shadowy marketing of Venezuelan oil.” What’s surprising isn’t that this alleged company, Knob Trading, is part of the phantom network selling Venezuelan oil through complex operations. What’s shocking is that Freddy Bernal, the current Governor of Táchira and who has never been a prominent figure in Chavismo, is part of this operation that yields millions in profits as part of the blatant theft from Venezuela. After the surprise, I begin to dissect the report. To start, I reproduce the executive summary verbatim: “This evaluation identifies Knob Trading not merely as a commercial front but as a critical logistical node for the Venezuelan regime. By controlling the entire chain of custody—ships, transshipment points, and financial liquidation—Knob Trading isolates PDVSA from seizure risks while ensuring revenue flow to the regime’s hardliners.” The report references key trials in the corruption web. Notably, Knob Trading manages the “phantom fleet” and offshore transfers to maneuver Venezuelan oil undetected. An important assertion is that the Prime Minister of Curaçao, Gilmar Pisas, either directly or indirectly “collaborates” with these illegal operations, as I will explain later. Additionally, Knob Trading has ties to terrorist financing, particularly to guerrilla groups operating in Táchira, which Bernal governs, highlighting his involvement. The document also reveals that this network of corruption operates various companies as commercial fronts in the United States, particularly in Miami. The first thing to note in Knob Trading’s profile is that it has its “headquarters” in Panama City, at Oceanía Business Plaza, 33rd floor, office 33-F. Why is this noteworthy? Because we detailed in this column how the Maduro-Flores clan has Panama as the epicenter of its dark operations, led by Cilia Flores’s favored nephew: Carlos Erick Malpica Flores. The report explains that Knob Trading is structured to operate simultaneously in international maritime jurisdictions and “sanctioned environments.” Who are its main leaders? The investigation currently mentions two individuals of Greek nationality: George Kassoutou, who controls the Panama operation, and Dimitrios Papageorgiou, who operates from Knob Monoprosopi in Athens and allegedly facilitates access to the financial system in Europe. In the network, there is a character who reportedly serves as the liaison with the regime: Ronmy José Cañas Zambrano, CI 11.498.002, who has several missions, including providing political cover to ensure successful operations. Moreover, the report identifies Knob Trading as structurally linked with the company “United Petroleo Corp” [UPC], which was central to the “PDVSA-Crypto” axis, but after the scandal, it seems Knob Trading absorbed its operational capacity. Regarding the management of the phantom fleet, the report mentions they are responsible for tasks including disabling or replacing transponders on ships and crude transfers ship-to-ship conducted in low-visibility zones, referring to the “buoy 0 in Aruba”, along with frequent changes of flags and ship names to “wash” risk profiles. In the next column, I’ll detail the “Curaçao connection,” which involves political enablers; not just the current Prime Minister of Curaçao, Gilmar Pisas, but also the current acting president of Venezuela, Delcy Eloína Rodríguez. Details coming next week.
SUFFOCATION. The United States applied magician-like strategies to distract the regime. Why? Because while maintaining intense pressure to suffocate narcotrafficking operations and particularly oil marketing, they snuck into their house and took Maduro and Cilia with internal complicity. Here, the surprise factor was crucial; while the country was recovering from Christmas celebrations, they executed the first surgical operation in the “maximum pressure” strategy, which, by the way, I believe won’t be the last. While the regime was wracking their brains to maintain their “dark” operations, they let their guard down, and the United States achieved its objective of capturing a key piece of the criminal organization that has kidnapped Venezuela. In this instance, the “magician” succeeded in deceiving the enemy and executed a trick that left them disoriented. By the way, regarding the suffocation of narcotrafficking activities and oil marketing, this approach will continue as a pressure measure for the regime to comply with U.S. demands while the country supposedly navigates towards a transition. In this case, the “magician” had significant internal support.
BETRAYAL (I). Although I dislike resorting to this argument, I must point out that in this column we’ve repeatedly warned that the “betrayal game” was latent within Chavismo. I even mentioned multiple times that the Rodríguez brothers could be the “X factor” in the regime’s crisis with the United States, and the events of January 3, 2026, turned that hypothesis into reality. Betrayal has prevailed within Chavismo, and Maduro along with Cilia are the first casualties in this struggle against Donald Trump’s government. Was Nicolás and Cilita’s arrest a result of betrayal? No one doubts that at this moment. Indeed, friends within the regime confirm that in chavista circles she is dubbed “Delcy the traitor”; however, that is a partial error, which I’ll explain further. Let’s start with the events of last Saturday. When Donald Trump announced that U.S. special forces had captured the presidential couple, the first hypothesis that emerged was that they had negotiated their surrender in exchange for secure relocation to another country. This hypothesis crumbled when the U.S. announced they would be tried in New York. That’s when the betrayal argument began to surface, reinforced by further details that emerged as time passed, piecing together the puzzle. Initial evidence indicated that U.S. forces unimpededly entered Venezuelan airspace; apparently, no one detected them, and no one attempted to prevent their entry, allowing them to act almost at will. Clearly, there had been collaboration to ensure the Americans faced little trouble. Additionally, it was later revealed that about 50% of the FAN personnel were on Christmas leave, which is quite strange given the anticipation that at any moment the U.S. might incursion into national territory. During an informal meeting of Vladimir Padrino López with various generals in the hallways of the Miraflores Palace, the Minister of Defense was asked about why the order was not given to deploy operational Su-30 and F16 fighter jets to repel the U.S. attack. What did Padrino respond? Nothing at all; he always evaded addressing the questions from these high-ranking officials. Now it’s clear that Maduro was being led to slaughter. Even though he had an interest in negotiating his exit to seek asylum in a safe country, he faced opposition from other Chavistas insisting on resisting the “imperialist aggression.” They were essentially preparing him to be served up on a silver platter, with the aim of trying to reach coexistence agreements with the United States. Who masterminded the betrayal? It’s not Delcy, who lacks the capability, connections, and, above all, the malice to craft such a plan. Although she is the primary target, the true mastermind is her brother Jorge, who possesses the intelligence, connections, and malice required to construct that scenario. In the end, Delcy is a co-author but not the main author, a possibility we’ve mentioned numerous times. Why were the Rodríguez always considered the “X factor” in the crisis? Because both were exempt from drug trafficking accusations; not even the U.S. government accused them of being part of the Cartel de Los Soles, which provided them with an advantage allowing them to play in their favor. Who else was involved in the betrayal? There are many implicated, but two stand out, particularly: Vladimir Padrino López and Diosdado Cabello. Why did they need to seek other allies? Because the Rodríguez don’t control anything in Venezuela, requiring significant support. Why didn’t they hand over Diosdado, given they appeared to be Maduro’s unconditional allies? Because Cabello controls the collectives, the PSUV, the police, and much of the Armed Forces. Hence, it was easier to sacrifice Maduro, who also had no control and was the primary target of the United States. What made sense was to onboard Diosdado as a temporary ally, which they did. Now the meaning of “resistance” has shifted; it’s about maintaining power as “partners,” even if temporary, with the U.S. Amidst the pronounced noise generated by the betrayal, the Rodríguez made sure to include “Nicolasito” in Delcy’s swearing-in ceremony to convey two messages: first, they remain loyal to Maduro, and second, they control the detained president’s son. However, one must pay attention to Diosdado Cabello’s face and gestures during that act, as he deliberately appeared distanced from the event’s center. His expression was not just one of annoyance, but also concern. He remained still and serious throughout the ceremony. If he was part of the betrayal, then why the discomfort? We review that in the next segment of this analysis.
SAVE YOURSELF… Whoever can and however they can. The family environment surrounding the Maduro-Flores clan is in serious trouble. If Nicolás and Cilia were betrayed and face many years in prison, they fear being the next victims. In fact, it’s prudent to reflect on Tareck El Aissami’s case; he went from being crucial to the regime to a leper who disappeared, thanks, coincidentally, to the same individuals who betrayed Maduro: the Rodríguez brothers. In light of such danger, we see how “Nicolasito,” the only media-savvy heir of the Maduro-Flores clan, rapidly shifted from discussing his father’s betrayal to posing like a “Chinese vase” at Delcy Eloína’s swearing-in ceremony; he also delivered a syrupy speech kneeling, attempting to show fidelity toward those who betrayed his father. “Nicolasito” knows he could easily become exposed and be among the next sacrifices. Thus, he sought refuge, and since Cabello detests him, he had no choice but to seek protection from the ominous brothers. The same applies to Cilia’s three sons—in particular, her favored nephew, Carlos Erick Malpica Flores—who must also be taking similar actions. The latter has likely placed all the clan’s businesses, particularly those centered in Panama, at the Rodríguez’s disposal. The legacy left for the heirs won’t be easy; they could be the next sacrifices.
FRONT MAN. Even though we are still celebrating Maduro’s detention, Chavismo remains in power; and surely, facing U.S. threats, they are going to escalate the final looting, which emphasizes the need to continue unveiling the front men of those who have been protagonists in the shameless theft of Venezuela’s resources. Around Christmas, a friend sent me a video featuring Omar Enrique with one of his main partners [front men], Juan Paván, along with Yonder Durán and several women. They were celebrating the participation of the unsuccessful merengue singer in Pozón del Saladillo, but what caught my eye was a fourth individual. The source asked if I knew him, to which I replied no: “Well, let me introduce you; he’s Adrián Negrette, another of Omar Enrique’s key front men. Among the various businesses he oversees, one is the travel agency 261, which is really owned by Omar Enrique. With this business, they launder a significant amount of money from shady deals that have been conducted under the regime’s umbrella, including the contract Juan Paván has for dispatching 700,000 CLAP bags a month. Coincidentally, thanks to Omar Enrique’s intervention, Negrette secured the concession for the only VIP lounge at La Chinita Airport.” Adrián Negrette is now another target for ongoing scrutiny. This travel agency 261 is located on 3D Avenue with 67th Street Cecilio Acosta, Commercial Center Camoruco, Store 2-17. By the way, Omar Enrique’s performance at Pozón was a total flop due to public rejection.
REVELATION. On Friday, December 26, renowned colleague Milagros Socorro published an interesting yet contradictory piece in “La Gran Aldea.” What did she announce? Here’s what she said: “While Venezuela celebrated Christmas Eve in 2025, the regime quietly executed the largest operation to capture civilian data in its recent history. As has been the norm since Chavismo came to power—taking advantage of moments of national distraction or holiday to enact irreversible control measures—between 11 PM on December 24 and the early hours of the 26th, technical monitoring of state networks confirmed a massive and coordinated migration of servers. In the stillness of Christmas, SAIME, the public banks, and the Patria platform merged their databases into a single centralized node.” I confess this information alarmed me for two fundamental reasons. First, it seemed terribly strange that Chavismo did not have all that information centralized in their ongoing quest to control Venezuelans. Second, if they didn’t collect all that data centrally, it’s worth questioning—and even worrying—about what they really did. The suspicion is that they moved the information to another server for some nefarious purpose, as one shouldn’t expect anything good from these individuals. There must have been some plan around which Milagros Socorro issued this warning.
BETRAYAL (II). The “betrayal game” in Chavismo is only just beginning. If before no one trusted anyone, now there’s even less trust among them. Each high-ranking regime member fears being the next sacrificed. Maduro and Cilia’s arrests are not the final chapter of this game but the first with significant consequences. More betrayals, revelations, and clandestine agreements are coming. Everyone wants to save themselves, which involves handing over their enemies. On one side, the Rodríguez brothers need to assert greater control and power to prevent Cabello from sidelining them; meanwhile, Diosdado must control and potentially sacrifice the Rodríguez to stop them from negotiating their own sacrifices. Indeed, the first skirmishes have already started. The appointment of Major General Gustavo González López as head of the Military House was a Diosdado imposition to monitor Delcy closely. The events occurring on the night of Monday, January 5th in Caracas were the first significant act of this new chapter in the “betrayal game.” After various versions circulated, I made a couple of inquiries, and after persistent efforts, I uncovered what truly happened. That evening in the Miraflores Palace was highly tumultuous. Meetings were happening back and forth. Heated discussions continued incessantly. But suddenly, as night fell, armed collectives appeared with rifles, surrounding the palace, alerting the Military House, which ordered them to withdraw. The collective leader’s response was that they would remain because they had received explicit instructions. The matter escalated, worsening when the collectives deployed several drones to monitor inside the palace, prompting the presidential guard to respond with gunfire to down the drones. Tension mounted at times, with several fearing it could lead to a coup. Who ordered the collectives to cordon off Miraflores? Surely it was Diosdado, and therefore Delcy demanded him to cease the siege. Curious timing: everything ended when Cabello contacted the collective leader and ordered them to withdraw. In my humble opinion, this was a test by Diosdado to gauge the response capacity and character of the acting president. This is the first confrontation in a series that must transpire. This society has a very short shelf life. All indicators suggest they could end up killing each other. It’s a matter of power, control, and resources. The Rodríguez have communication with the U.S. government, but they exert no control. Conversely, Diosdado lacks means to converse with the gringos but holds territorial, partisan, police, and military control. Who will end up winning? It’s impossible to tell at this stage, and perhaps no one will ultimately triumph, instead, all may end up losing. Possibly, the United States is even fostering the conflict to see them finish each other off. It’s a heavyweight dispute, marked by different strengths and weaknesses. Keep an eye on the upcoming skirmishes.
REELECTION. Do you recall that in my last column of 2025, I mentioned councilor Jessy Gascón had joined Luis Caldera’s conspiracy against Gian Carlo Di Martino? After that commentary was published, a friend who is a chavista councilor reached out to clarify some of the reasons behind Ms. Gascón’s actions: “She has had a term marked by several conflicts with us. We have called out her lack of transparency and communication, among other issues. That’s why she seeks the governor’s support to have the party permit her reelection as president of the Municipal Council. Thus, she offers her assistance to keep the mayor’s actions in check and closely monitored.” The problem with this game is that Di Martino is not naive or foolish enough to let her operate unopposed, and now they have her in their sights for her conspiratorial nature. Although all depends on how much longer Chavismo stays in power, it is evident that this struggle between Luis Caldera and Gian Carlo Di Martino will likely escalate in intensity and potentially produce more victims. In conclusion, I got the news that Jessy Gascón missed her chance at reelection, and the new president of the Municipal Council will be councilor Desirée Fernández. Was it a Di Martino conspiracy? Knowing the Italian, I have no doubts about it.
ABUSE. Omar Enrique, the well-connected figure, thinks he owns the Venezuelan, especially Zulia’s, artistic world. What happened? Well, he forbade the renowned musical group SanLuis from fulfilling their Christmas artistic commitments in our region. With his usual chavista arrogance, he stated they wouldn’t enter the country, and not even the mayor of Maracaibo, Gian Carlo Di Martino, could do anything because he said NO, and NO means NO. This prevented SanLuis from returning to Zulia and being part of several events. This man sees himself as the owner of the state.
Darwin Chávez|@Darwinch857|[email protected]