The current political transition process in Venezuela, overseen by the United States government, poses the uncomfortable presence of Diosdado Cabello in power temporarily, all in an effort to prevent greater internal chaos in the country.
This is the assessment of defense and security expert, José Humberto García, in a conversation with Venezuela Política y Sin Filtros, who analyzed the Venezuelan process in which the administration of Donald Trump plays a decisive role in dismantling the current system.
As is known, following the capture of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, a structured plan was implemented in stages aimed at institutional stabilization, economic recovery, and the removal of foreign influences such as those from Russia, China, and Iran from Venezuelan territory.
In his analysis, García projects a path toward justice and reinstitutionalization and warns that those responsible for crimes against humanity must be held accountable.
Political Transition in Venezuela: A Process Overseen by the U.S.
José Humberto García defines the political transition in Venezuela as a process overseen by the U.S. government led by Donald Trump and identifies the Venezuelan state not as a traditional political entity but as a “criminal corporation” that has instrumentalized its institutions.
For García, these two definitions are crucial for understanding the entire dimension of the change process taking place in Venezuela, structured in three critical stages:
stabilization,
recovery (civil and institutional), and
transition (electoral processes).
Currently, Venezuela is in the stabilization phase, which is progressing rapidly and is characterized by the fact that the de facto control of the state has moved from Caracas to Washington, specifically under the supervision of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
This stage fundamentally translates into the gradual dismantling of “Chavismo” from within.
This fact is reflected in the expulsion of extra-regional actors, namely Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China, as well as the management of energy resources through international intermediaries to avoid creditor embargoes.
The ultimate goal is reinstitutionalization that prevents chaos and ensures justice, particularly concerning high-risk figures like Diosdado Cabello, warns José Humberto García.
What is the Structural Framework of the Political Transition in Venezuela?
The model proposed by the United States is structured, as is known, around the aforementioned three evolutionary stages, which develop without the ability to be measured or stipulated with fixed dates since it is a dynamic process of “weather vanes” that must align, warns José Humberto García.
1. Stabilization: current phase that began approximately 45 days ago, focusing on stopping chaos, controlling violence, and ensuring that the Venezuelan state does not completely collapse after the removal of regime leaders.
2. Recovery: encompasses the reinstatement of civil society, institutions, and the economy. It involves the return of exiles and the restoration of civic hope.
3. Transition: is the final period that includes normal electoral processes and the autonomous functioning of institutions before citizens.
To measure progress from stabilization to recovery, José Humberto García defines six observable dimensions:
DimensionCurrent Status and ObservationsInternal PoliticsDismantling of the Chavista state. Elimination of “missions” that served as petty cash. Emergence of “Neo-Chavismo” seeking to clean up its image.Extra-Regional ActorsExit of Cubans, Russians, Iranians, and Chinese. These entities losing control over daily decisions.Opposition LeadershipDeep recognition of legitimate authorities and discussion about their formal role in the transition.Civil RightsProcess of freeing political prisoners and the return of exiles (in initial pressure phase).Repressive ApparatusWaning but still dangerous. Diosdado Cabello remains a controlling figure over police and military agencies.Tangible TimelineTransitioning from the intangible to fundamental events like electoral calendars or debt agreements.
Dismantling the Criminal State
According to García, the current state of Chavismo is comparable to an organism that is “eating itself.” He highlights a set of specific actions that demonstrate the regime’s loss of control:
Elimination of missions: seven historical missions were eliminated through the Official Gazette, indicating a cutback in parallel financing structures.
Narrative shift in the Armed Forces: the top military leadership transitioned from a narrative of “100 years of war” to one of “love and peace” following its operational collapse during the brief capture operation of Nicolás Maduro that lasted merely 27 minutes.
Washington’s oversight: Marco Rubio exercises de facto direction over the Venezuelan state, while figures like Delcy Rodríguez operate under this oversight to prevent complete chaos.
The Exit of Extra-Regional Actors
José Humberto García notes that the exit of foreign powers allied with the Chavista regime is a critical indicator of stabilization:
Cuba: significant repatriation of Cuban citizens and the elimination of communication systems and direct flights between Caracas and Havana.
Iran: closure of the “pipeline” Tehran-Caracas. Removal of key military personnel in Conviasa serving Iranian interests.
Russia: while technical contracts for Russian armaments (S-300, Sukhoi) persist, Russians are progressively losing their influence over daily political decisions.
China: oil contracts and control over communication systems (CANTV) and surveillance are being renegotiated or modified under the new geopolitical reality.
The Unwelcome Presence of Diosdado Cabello
In his analysis, José Humberto García acknowledges the unwelcome presence of Diosdado Cabello —current Minister of Interior and Justice in the power structure— which constitutes one of the most incisive points of the process.
García compares Cabello to a “bullet near an artery” and warns that removing him violently or prematurely could cause a “hemorrhage” that would result in internal chaos within the National Police and military components.
García recalls that Diosdado Cabello exerts control by managing the Bolivarian National Police (PNB), SEBIN, while also having tentacles in the National Guard (CONAS and Command Action Groups).
He states, however, that he will be removed and prosecuted once the institutions are stabilized, as his crimes against humanity and drug trafficking are considered non-prescriptible and not subject to amnesty. “If there’s no justice, there will never be peace (…) the historical memory of Venezuelans will never be clear if the victims are not compensated.”
Economic and Debt Management
José Humberto García also refers to the economic aspect and emphasizes that the United States is currently implementing a financial strategy to stabilize the country without using resources from American taxpayers.
This includes:
Oil Marketing: allocation of millions of barrels to specialized companies like Vitol and Trafigura.
Asset Protection: revenues generated are placed in jurisdictions like Qatar to prevent international creditors from seizing essential assets for national recovery.
Debt Restructuring: efforts are underway on restructuring external debt in U.S. courts to prepare the ground for a functional economy.
On the Amnesty Law
José Humberto García warns that the recently enacted Amnesty Law is a “Trojan Horse” that relativizes crime. He categorically rejects equating crimes against humanity —systematically committed by the state— with ordinary crimes or civil protest actions.
He also demands the immediate release of all political prisoners, including military personnel.
Fifth Generation Transition
Finally, José Humberto García asserts that the process in Venezuela represents a fifth-generation transition, where the conflict isn’t against a nation, but against a criminal structure.
He specifies that the stabilization phase is the essential prior step to avoiding a power vacuum and allowing legitimate leadership to exercise politics in a safe, democratic environment. He warns that success depends on maintaining international pressure and proceeding with a “rapid evolution” of institutions.
See in Sin Filtros “Cabello: more dangerous than Maduro | Washington’s secret calculation”: