A geopolitical crisis in Latin America is evident with the confrontation between the United States and Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, leader of the Cartel of the Suns; allegations of alleged electoral fraud in Honduras over a week after elections; as well as suspicions of irregularities in the Chilean elections.
The political situation in Latin America is heating up as the results of the presidential elections in Honduras are disputed, where a government official accuses alleged electoral fraud.
Meanwhile, the results of the Chilean elections are being questioned due to claims of misconduct that suggest a high number of “discrepant” records, leading to calls for the annulment of the elections.
Of course, the crisis in Venezuela, where Maduro’s regime and its criminal enterprise face military and legal pressure from a determined United States to eliminate the Cartel of the Suns, adds to the tension. This delicate situation has prompted mediation offers from actors like the presidents of Panama and Turkey.
These conflicts unfold within an asymmetric and multi-level war context, where propaganda and misinformation are key weapons to delegitimize democratic institutions, such as the vote. The situation highlights a broader global confrontation, where actors like Russia, China, and Iran support regimes hostile to the West, turning Latin America into a crucial battleground in this clash.
Venezuela: international pressure and Maduro’s strategies
The geopolitical crisis in Latin America centers around the Venezuelan conflict, with multiple actors shifting their pieces on a complex board.
Diplomatic and media pressure
• Panama’s offer: The president of Panama, José Raúl Mulino, has offered to mediate and host “certain regime members” to “facilitate any transition.” This action seeks to “normalize in the media agenda” that the only possible exit is that of Nicolás Maduro.
• Turkey’s intervention: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reached out to Maduro. Officially, the conversation was about restoring the air connection between Caracas and Istanbul. However, it is thought to be Erdoğan’s move to offer himself as a mediator or even a destination for possible exile.
These offers, rather than being viable solutions, contribute to building an international narrative where Maduro’s exit is not the debate itself, but rather his possible fate.
Position and strategy of the regime
In the face of pressure, Maduro’s regime projects an image of cohesion and strength while seeming to cede the country’s sovereignty in exchange for support.
Display of force: The graduation of about 1,000 members of the DGCIM (General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence) is an event aimed at demonstrating civil-military-police cohesion.
Non-negotiation stance: The core of the regime will not voluntarily relinquish power. They will act like any other cartel, only through force.
• The “Grandma Eréndira”: Nicolás Maduro, much like a character from Gabriel García Márquez, acts like the ruinous grandma who sells Venezuela, giving away its strategic resources and territorial sovereignty to opportunistic countries like China, Russia, and Turkey in exchange for money and symbolic support to cling to power a little longer.
Operation “Southern Lance” and the role of the United States
The U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, known as Operation “Southern Lance,” is the most tangible source of pressure on Venezuela and the Cartel of the Suns.
War powers: The operation is backed by the “War Powers Act,” which allows the U.S. president to deploy troops without Congressional approval for a limited period. This deadline has reportedly passed, intensifying discussions about the next steps.
Antinarcotics/antiterrorism justification: The legal foundation for kinetic actions is based on the designation of the Cartel of the Suns and Tren de Aragua as “foreign terrorist organizations.” This allows for extraterritorial operations, such as lethal actions against “drug vessels” ordered by War Secretary Pete Hegseth, who bears responsibility and must prove that the targets were on an intelligence list.
Internal political opposition: The Democratic Party seeks to create a dynamic of protection for Nicolás Maduro by questioning the legality of operations and aiming to bring the debate to Congress to limit presidential action.
The point of no return
The Trump administration reached a critical juncture where inaction would have devastating consequences.
The task force is obligated to dismantle the Cartel of the Suns, as withdrawing would become laughable on the world stage. The drawn sword must be sheathed in blood.
Withdrawal without results would damage the morale of the world’s first and foremost military, with no chance of recovery. The pressure, now that “Southern Lance” operations have started, is not on Maduro but on Trump and the U.S. military. Inaction would consolidate drug governments throughout Latin America.
Extending military action beyond December could possibly increase pressure and seek a negotiated exit.
Electoral crisis in Honduras: government alleges fraud
Likewise, the geopolitical crisis in Latin America finds another manifestation in the unprecedented situation unfolding in Honduras, where the ruling party, Libre, through its advisor Marlon Ochoa, has reported systemic electoral fraud following the recent presidential elections. The government formulates this accusation as part of a strategy to annul an electoral outcome unfavorable to them.
Marlon Ochoa, as the representative of the ruling party in the National Electoral Council, presented a series of serious specific allegations about the process:
DenunciaDescripciónSystem failure (TREP)Massive failure of the Preliminary Electoral Result Transmission system (TREP) with severe technological issues.Biometric verificationThe requirement for mandatory biometric verification was removed, potentially allowing manipulation of the electoral roll.Transmission errorsErrors were reported in nearly 86% of TREP transmission records, causing massive discrepancies in the records.Vote transferAutomatic transfer of votes between candidates and parties within the system was identified, suggesting malicious alteration.Retention of recordsMore than 16,000 records (equivalent to nearly 1 million votes) were allegedly held for 40 hours without processing, allowing for possible modification.Blackouts and failuresBlackouts and simultaneous failures were recorded at multiple antennas and broadcasting systems, hindering public verification.Manipulation of source codeIt is alleged that the system’s source code was accessed, modified, and closed by an unauthorized person, without following the protocols of the National Electoral Council’s three official keys.Records with zero resultsAbout 5,000 records appear in the system with zero results, despite having been physically counted.
However, it seems this scenario was anticipated in case of an unexpected outcome for the government. Before the elections, there were fears of fraud being perpetrated by the government, but ultimately it may not have been feasible since their candidate, Rixi Moncada, ended up in third place.
The government’s own accusation may serve as the perfect excuse to annul the elections, allowing President Xiomara Castro to extend her mandate while a new call is delayed.
This situation parallels that which occurred in Bolivia in 2019: for 21st-century socialism, “fraud serves as long as it is useful, and when it’s not, we denounce it ourselves.” When fraud isn’t enough to win, they “flip the table” to annul the process and declare themselves victims. The halting of the TREP count at 57.3%, when opposition candidate Tito Asfura held the lead, is evidence of this.
Annulment of the elections would be a significant setback for the region, as one cannot claim their own faults to benefit themselves. Honduran society must rise up and demand respect for the results.
However, common sense may not prevail, and annulment of the elections may emerge as the most probable outcome. This could lead to a breakdown of constitutional order or a self-coup by the ruling party, further complicating the geopolitical situation in the region and U.S. foreign policy.
Electoral irregularities in Chile: an unprecedented scenario
Chile is also a stage for the geopolitical crisis in Latin America, as in this country with a tradition of transparent electoral processes, significant irregularities have been reported during the first round of general elections on November 16.
Discrepant records: A disproportionately high percentage of “discrepant” records was detected, where the total votes do not match the number of voters registered at the table.
Presidential elections: About 7% of tables were found to be discrepant, when the standard accepted in the West for human errors is up to 3%.
Parliamentary elections: The percentage rises to 25% of tables discrepant for deputies and senators.
Specific areas: In some northern regions of the country, up to one-third of the tables show discrepancies.
Altered records and penal crime: Thousands of records have been found that not only show discrepancies but have also been altered or modified. This manipulation constitutes a penal crime punishable by imprisonment in Chile.
The crux of the problem: The core of the issue occurred in the telematic transmission of data from the polling stations to SERVEL (Electoral Service).
Legal actions: Four civil lawsuits have been filed before the Electoral Qualification Tribunal, two of which request the annulment of the entire electoral process.
Future risks: There is concern that these irregularities may have served as a “practice run for a potential giant fraud” in the second presidential round, scheduled for December 14.
• The Nobel as a Political Tool: The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to María Corina Machado is analyzed not as a meritorious recognition, but as a political instrument. Eric Fajardo argues that since the award to Juan Manuel Santos, the Nobel Committee has been using the award to “reinforce and validate” figures and processes aligned with “European social democracy” and the needs of the left. It is believed that the award has been “devalued” and “deteriorated.”
Asymmetric war, misinformation
All these conflicts reveal the asymmetric, multi-level war being waged in the region, where the weapons are not only conventional.
Delegitimization of democracy: One of the objectives of “hostile countries” is to utilize the democratic tools, such as elections, to delegitimize them. Allegations of fraud, whether true or not, erode trust in voting and Western institutions.
• Narrative warfare: The main battle is fought “in people’s minds” through misinformation and propaganda. What is reported in the West and in Russia are “complete and parallel realities” that have little to do with the facts on the ground.
Watch in Sin Filtros “Geopolitical Storm in America”: