Yesterday, Leopoldo Lopez declared his intention to compete in the opposition primaries, aiming to challenge Hugo Chavez in the presidential election set for October 2012. In my view, as I previously mentioned in Spanish, Leopoldo has emerged as a key player in Venezuelan politics, and if he strategizes effectively, he may hold the cards to influence the outcome. Despite any obstacles posed by chavismo, Leopoldo has built a political platform that has shown remarkable numbers in party primaries. Over the past 2-3 years, he has traveled extensively across the country, similar to Romulo Betancourt, establishing what I’ve been told are nationwide networks of local support. He currently ranks comfortably in 2nd or 3rd place in polls (though we all know Venezuelan polling is questionable), despite not holding office since 2008.
What Leopoldo needs to do is forge an alliance with MUD, the umbrella group of opposition parties, and back the ultimate winner. He should capitalize on his current political limbo (as Chavez’s kangaroo courts will ultimately decide his eligibility), but with the backing of an international court’s ruling, he should commence a vigorous campaign. What can chavistas do, stop him from campaigning or travelling across the nation?
If he wins the primaries, which I’m skeptical about, Hugo Chavez will lose in October 2012.
If he is barred from the primaries and supports Henrique Capriles Radonsky, Pablo Perez, Maria Corina Machado, or even the turncoat Henri Falcon, Hugo Chavez will still lose in October 2012.
If he participates in the primaries and finishes in 2nd or 3rd place, he will have significant votes, a robust network, a political platform, and support to offer the winning candidate, ensuring Chavez’s defeat in October 2012.
However, if his caudillo tendencies take over and he splits the opposition vote, Hugo Chavez will win in October 2012.
Thus, regardless of what chavismo does, short of taking extreme measures, I believe Leopoldo has the power to determine who will be the next president of Venezuela.