Yesterday, Leopoldo López announced his intention to win the indefinite opposition primaries, aiming to confront Hugo Chávez in the presidential elections of October 2012. In my view, as I’ve previously noted in Spanish, Leopoldo has become the kingmaker, and definitely has the upper hand if he plays his cards right. Regardless of what the chavismo throws at him, Leopoldo has developed a political platform that demonstrated quite impressive numbers in the party primaries. He has traveled across the country, to the Rómulo Betancourt indefinite, over the past 2-3 years, and has established (so I’ve been told) local support networks practically nationwide. He comfortably sits in second or third place in the polls (not that one can trust Venezuelan pollsters) despite not holding office since 2008.
What Leopoldo needs to do is strike a deal with the MUD, the umbrella group of opposition political parties, and bet on the eventual winner. Making the most of the fact that he is still in political limbo (the kangaroo courts of Chávez will ultimately decide if he can run), but with a binding decision from an international court at his back, he should launch his campaign. Fiercely. What are the chavistas going to do, prevent him from campaigning or traveling around the country?
If he wins the primaries, which I doubt, Hugo Chávez will lose in October 2012.
If he is not allowed to participate in the primaries and instead bets on Henrique Capriles Radonsky, Pablo Pérez, María Corina Machado, or even the traitor Henri Falcón, Hugo Chávez will lose in October 2012.
If he is allowed to participate in the primaries and comes in second or third, he still has a significant amount of votes, networks, political platform, and support to lend to the winning candidate, meaning Hugo Chávez will lose in October 2012.
However, if the caudillo trend gets the best of him and divides the opposition vote, Hugo Chávez will win in October 2012.
Thus, whatever chavismo does, aside from assassinating him, he has, in my opinion, the power to decide who will be the next president of Venezuela.