The regime of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has reached a turning point. What started as a revolutionary promise of popular power has morphed into an authoritarian apparatus sustained by repression, propaganda, and the remnants of a collapsed oil economy. The rumors circulating that Maduro may have struck a deal with Donald Trump don’t seem far-fetched; rather, they appear to signal the final stage of a power that has survived far too long at the cost of its people.
The recent history of Venezuela illustrates how the tools of democracy can become hollow. The recall referendum, designed by Hugo Chávez to hold power accountable to the populace, has turned into a decorative piece of the Constitution. The last attempt to activate this mechanism in 2022 was met with impossible requirements imposed by the National Electoral Council: four million signatures in just twelve hours. Thus, the tool of the people transformed into an authoritarian accessory. We should heed the lessons from this troubling example.
The country that once boasted of being the richest in Latin America now faces the ruin of its main income source. Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. -PDVSA- produces merely 700,000 barrels a day, down from three million a decade ago. Corruption, militarization, and mismanagement have sunk what was once a source of national pride. It wasn’t just sanctions: internal looting and a lack of state capacity played a crucial role. Mexico should take note.
Meanwhile, over eight million Venezuelans have fled the country. Free expression is non-existent, the judiciary is co-opted, and poverty climbs above 80 percent. In this context, Maduro’s purported “pact” with Trump starts to make sense—not as an ideological gesture but as an attempt at survival.
The geopolitical context is also hardening. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest nuclear aircraft carrier, has been deployed recently to the Caribbean, officially to strengthen anti-drug operations. However, Washington is well aware that its presence has another implication: direct pressure on the Venezuelan regime. This vessel can deploy up to 90 aircraft and project ballistic force across the region. Such military might isn’t sent solely to intercept drug boats.
If the pact exists, Maduro may be negotiating his exit with personal guarantees in exchange for information about his affiliates both inside and outside Venezuela. If not, the message is clear: the United States is prepared to ramp up pressure to its maximum level. Trump, who is campaigning, is looking for tangible successes in foreign policy, and toppling Maduro—an enduring symbol of Chavismo—would make for a perfect trophy.
Venezuela has become a laboratory for post-democratic authoritarianism: a state that holds elections without real options, justice without independence, and media without freedom. Its collapse serves as a warning for other regimes that, under the guise of democracy, concentrate all power.
When the end arrives—and all signs point to its approach—it will be less due to the will of the people and more because of the convenience of the powerful. Yet that doesn’t change the outcome: Maduro has either already made a deal or is on the verge of doing so. This signals the final phase of Chavismo: that of those left with no choice but to surrender.
Three in a Row
The fall of Maduro will not only be a lesson for Venezuela. It will also serve as an uncomfortable reminder for those elsewhere who believe that absolute power can be maintained without paying the price.
Verónica Malo Guzmán/ [email protected]
El Heraldo de México