Norway Tightens Investigation in Nobel Betting Scandal: A Possible Leak from the Committee Regarding Unexpected Winner María Corina Machado
By: La Tabla/Data Journalism Platform 15 OCT 2025
Norwegian financial authorities confirmed this Wednesday that the investigation into a possible leak of confidential information regarding the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is still ongoing. The investigation is now focusing on possible irregularities within the Norwegian Committee itself. The case erupted after an unusual spike in digital betting on María Corina Machado, the announced winner, just hours before the official announcement.
A user reportedly made over $65,000 in profits with an account created on the same day, increasing suspicions of insider trading and market manipulation.
The Nobel Institute acknowledged an “anomalous peak” on Polymarket and warned that this incident threatens to undermine the credibility of the world’s most prestigious award.
The ongoing investigation in Norway into the alleged leak of confidential information in digital betting is now joined by a report from the Venezuelan portal La Tabla, which points out possible connections between winner María Corina Machado and activist Thor Halvorssen Mendoza, founder of the Human Rights Foundation and the Oslo Freedom Forum. According to the investigation, at least two members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee may have ties to entities linked to Halvorssen, feeding the hypothesis of undue influence in the decision.
Timeline: This is how the Nobel Peace Prize 2025 betting scandal has unfolded
– Early Friday morning in Oslo (October 10, hours before the announcement):
A “bizarre” movement was detected on the decentralized platform Polymarket: the odds of María Corina Machado winning the Nobel Peace Prize surged from 3.75% to over 72.8% in under two hours.
– Hours before the official announcement:
The sudden increase raises suspicions of insider trading.
– Official announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize:
The Norwegian Committee confirms María Corina Machado as the winner.
– Immediate reaction from the Nobel Institute and Norwegian financial authorities:
An official investigation is launched for possible “insider trading” or market manipulation.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, told Bloomberg: “It seems we have fallen victim to a criminal actor trying to profit from our information.”
– Norwegian press (Aftenposten and Finansavisen):
It is revealed that a user reportedly made over $65,000 in bets using an account created on the day of the announcement.
– Key fact:
Only five members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee knew the result before it was made public, reinforcing the suspicion of a leak.
– Latest update (October 15, 2025):
Norwegian authorities confirm that the investigation is ongoing. Accounts linked to million-dollar operations are being traced, and a preliminary report is being prepared to determine if there was a leak from the Nobel Committee or coordinated speculation.