Author: Isabel Vileya
This article was created on 02/13/2026 and published on 02/14/2026
As is the trend nowadays, I will join the wave of speculation. First of all, I must warn that everything I’m about to discuss regarding the specific data I present is nothing more than conjectures, aimed at comparing the Marxist method of contrasting facts with facts, and speculation, which proves nothing more than suspicions. Even hypothetically aligning with some unknown reality, at least from my perspective, we cannot assert it.
The first speculation arises from the meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska in August 2025. The private conversations we are unaware of, which we cannot speak about, must have touched on the situation in Venezuela and its President Nicolás Maduro, who at that time had a bounty on his head from the US, while also maintaining active collaboration agreements in various areas, including military, with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Speculating about the unknown, we interpret that with Russia as a partner and the US as an enemy, this topic should have been of interest in that context.
Let’s continue speculating about the withdrawal of Russian oil companies amid US military harassment, only fifteen days before the military operation in Caracas that ended with the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro, the president of Venezuela, and his wife Cilia Flores, the First Lady and National Assembly member, alongside the murder of 115 individuals, including military personnel and civilians, with 32 Cuban heroes from the Presidential Honor Guard among them.
We also speculate about the FANB’s lack of response. I must point out that this isn’t entirely true; while it was less proportional, there was a timid response that deserves investigation in the context of the events to clarify responsibilities. However, without any speculation, there was no cowardice or lack of combat readiness from the FANB, the Bolivarian Militia, the Collectives, or the Venezuelan people. One day, I hope we will have a report and balance sheet that helps us understand what went wrong.
Another speculation is about why Cuba, despite losing 32 of its best sons as heroes, hasn’t made any evaluations and remains silent. Waiting to gather objective judgment elements to assess not only the situation and position of the Venezuelan government but also the “imputable” responsibility that resulted in the deaths of its agents who were part of a high-level collaboration between both states, stemming from the political brotherhood of both peoples.
As we continue to speculate, I suspect that the US has an urgent need for Venezuelan oil and its economic effects, and since speculation is free, I’ll note that part of the US external debt is owed primarily to China. By early 2026, China’s official holdings in US Treasury bonds stood at approximately $682.6 billion. As a good speculator, I think that if someone owes me that amount, I would want to collect it, and I would appreciate my debtor trying to solve its solvency issues. But, of course, I have no evidence to support any claim, so I wouldn’t dare use speculation as an argument.
Let’s move forward and look at the management of the Interim Government of Venezuela. Personally, I do not like the Hydrocarbons Law; I wish it didn’t exist as a set of norms granting imperialism rights over this country’s resources. However, regarding material matters and bourgeois laws, I have learned that what is said and done today can easily change tomorrow. As statements made in prison under coercion can be revoked once freedom is regained, and material things are transient; as they say in capitalism, Santa Rita, Rita, Rita, what you stole from me can be taken back.
I’m relatively more concerned about the Amnesty Law because it represents a concession that introduces the enemy’s narrative that Venezuela was not a democratic country and that there are political prisoners, which is not true. The political prisoners that the opposition claims are either political inmates for inciting hatred or outright murderers and organizers of unrest, agitators who attacked the people and the government.
These unsavory elements and the visits from US delegations, accompanied by what some label as the government’s genuflection, are seen by some as confirmation of betrayal by the current Cabinet toward the President. From my standpoint, however, I wouldn’t make any categorical statements about the existence of an objective truth. I have heard many theories, some of which could even include extraterrestrials in the equation. Another theory is that “Nicolás was aware and participated because he is negotiating his golden exile in Madrid.” I’m not making it up; this is said by someone who claims to know that the presidential couple is staying at the ‘Sheraton’ or the ‘Hilton.’ Apologies, I’m not sure which one, or maybe I’m confusing them.
So, there are various conspiracy theories, and their reach depends on who tells them; the details will vary, and the only certainty is that, if there was a betrayal of this magnitude, I suspect that the details for many of us could only be clarified over time and objectively, resulting from an accumulation of forces different from the current one. Because, and this is somewhat speculation, who would publicly admit to being a traitor?
I won’t be uncovering any new truths by mentioning that there are scandalous theories and details of all kinds that include Nicolás Maduro Guerra, Diosdado Cabello, and Padrino López, in one sense and the other. Honestly, I do not take any position beyond remaining silent and waiting, doing what I believe is my duty, respecting that the Venezuelan people decide. If they feel that their government does not represent what they desire or aligns with the principles for which Venezuelans placed their trust, they should hold the relevant parties accountable through popular participation channels.
I maintain that the Venezuelan people are predominantly revolutionary, and if, under any circumstance, they become aware that someone is acting against the people’s interests, they will act accordingly when conditions allow. As a revolutionary, I also know that suitable conditions are not always present. However, those can be created.
Despite it all, I have a grim feeling that in the face of such an offensive display from imperialism, neither the government nor the Venezuelan people are projected to have much more positive options in the medium or long term other than to endure and resist, hopefully laying the groundwork to return to the path of socialism. Speaking of which, I will summarize as much as possible the only fact that, in my opinion, represents the most dangerous gesture conceded by this provisional government.
Old revolutionaries I have interviewed taught me an essential lesson. To consider a comrade as either a collaborator or a traitor, there needs to be a clear and undeniable fact, which is voluntariness. Therefore, I’m unsure whether actions made under such extreme coercion, like military threats where there’s such a disparity in power and the kidnapping of the supreme authority of a country, can be measured on the “traitor scale.” What I do consider a notably regrettable gesture is that Jorge Rodríguez granted an interview to a US media outlet where he renounces socialism and speaks of free-market economics.
From my perspective, this poses a more substantial basis than other matters to draw attention to various considerations.
For 26 years, the Venezuelan people have trusted the revolutionary organizations founded by Commander Chávez – MBR200 and MVR – which led to the formation of PSUV, revolutionary organizations that have brought the government to power repeatedly, based on clearly defined principles, programs, and statutes that focus on anti-imperialism and the struggle for Bolivarian socialism as primary objectives. This means that the government, predominantly composed of PSUV members, must be clear on the principles outlined in its statutes. It must be understood that the mandate given by the people is based on these principles and not others. If these principles undergo any modification, it is only fair that the people are again consulted to determine whether those principles and objectives, founded by Commander Chávez, should be changed, or conversely, maintained. In that case, we will need to evaluate what to do.
The President of the National Assembly remains a member of the PSUV; thus, we have no choice but to wait and see what the Party thinks of these unfortunate statements, whether they represent a personal opinion or an official declaration, and what the Party’s directives will be moving forward.
We began with speculation, and to avoid getting lost in the clouds, we can only conclude that we still lack comprehension of many things and clarification of others. Yet, the crucial point is that the people must reclaim their sovereignty and avenues of participation, and that won’t be possible while the threat compromises the accumulation of power necessary to rid themselves of any external pressures currently present.
Much more than suspicions and speculations are needed to prove a hypothesis, but these days I have learned that suspicions, speculation, and especially the lack of trust that conspiracies engender plunge the people into desperation. Therefore, it’s not that I don’t understand the confusion and the need for a response; it’s just that given the impossibility of influencing what is currently beyond our control, at least for now and possibly for much longer, what remains is to avoid causing harm.
Author’s Note: I have omitted dozens of data points and events to shorten the exposition… and the speculations.