The anatomy of power in Venezuela is a complex phenomenon; it is not controlled by a single individual but operates as an interdependent constellation of axes—civil, military, and coercive—that compensate for and monitor each other.
This is revealed by an intelligence report we possess, which analyzes the intricate power structure in Venezuela. It does not operate as a single command but rather as a map composed of a central tripod where the mentioned axes function. This tripod is reinforced by an irregular power belt—armed groups and illicit economies—and is influenced by a disputed international perimeter.
The report highlights the administrative role of the Rodríguez brothers—Jorge and Delcy—the violent social control exercised by Diosdado Cabello, and the decisive arbitration of Vladimir Padrino López over the armed forces.
Internationally, the pressures from the United States and the support from powers like Russia and China condition the regime’s stability. Added to this is the influence of irregular groups and the position of María Corina Machado, who has popular legitimacy but lacks material strength.
Clash of Forces
The intelligence report in the hands of Venezuela Política establishes that power in Venezuela is not monolithic, as previously noted, and is not exercised by a single person. Instead, it exhibits a tripod structure:
- civil-administrative axis,
- coercive axis,
- military axis.
As reinforcement, a set of irregular forces—armed groups and illicit economies—act, which are conditioned by a disputed international perimeter involving the U.S., China, Russia, and Iran, all of whom are vying for the protection of their strategic, economic, and security interests.
Cuba, for its part, plays a dual role of survival and provider of control and intelligence methods. The survival of any actor in a new order will depend on their ability to guarantee stability, deliver verifiable results to the United States, and contain internal violence.
Anatomy of Power in Venezuela: The Axes
The axes of the anatomy of power in Venezuela form a constellation in which Chavismo operates.
• Civil-administrative axis: manages the minimum functioning of the state.
• Coercive axis: controls internal security and street mobilization.
• Military axis: ensures military discipline and the regime’s stability threshold.
• Irregular belt: composed of armed groups and illicit economies that outsource violence and territorial control.
• International perimeter: external actors that condition and contest the regime’s maneuvering space.
Internal Pillars of the Regime
Chavismo, as previously noted, is supported by axes.
Civil-Administrative Axis
The civil-administrative axis is in the hands of the brothers Jorge and Delcy Rodríguez, who form the most disciplined civil core of Chavismo, responsible for administering, shielding, and negotiating on behalf of the regime.
Their internal power is based on two pillars: proven operational loyalty and a family backstory that converted into a narrative of martyrdom, as their father, Jorge Antonio Rodríguez, was a leftist leader—kidnapper of businessman William Niehous in 1976—who died in state custody that same year. This family history completely explains the resumes of the siblings, suggesting a learned grammar where institution, coercion, and narrative intertwine.
Delcy Rodríguez: embodies administrative continuity. She manages key areas like the treasury, oil, imports, foreign currency, and interaction with economic actors.
Jorge Rodríguez: operates from the institutional framework to convert forceful decisions into legality, manage loyalties, and distribute incentives and punishments.
Unlike other key figures, the Rodríguez brothers do not appear in the U.S. reward scheme, although they are subject to sanctions. This grants them a potential margin of maneuver for negotiation, evidenced by the hypothesis of Delcy Rodríguez’s possible visit to Washington. Their survival hinges on their ability to maintain minimal functioning of the country.
Coercive Axis
Meanwhile, the coercive axis is led by Diosdado Cabello, who represents the regime’s muscle. His power is measured by his direct coercion capability and his control over the networks that dominate the streets.
Cabello’s influence comes from his control of security apparatuses, clout over internal intelligence, and direct links with paramilitary networks and collectives. These structures serve as deterrence, punishment, and control over territorial and protest activities.
Diosdado Cabello is functional to the regime because he offers a “credible threat,” turning intimidation into an essential political currency in a system with eroded electoral legitimacy.
He is the most challenging actor to normalize on the international stage due to the accusations, files, and sanctions against him. A key fact is the $25 million reward the U.S. maintains for information leading to his arrest, making him a high-cost piece and a potential sacrifice in future negotiations.
Military Axis
On the other hand, the military axis rests on Vladimir Padrino López, the Minister of Defense, who is the decisive arbiter of power in Venezuela, controlling the armed apparatus that, in turn, secures the stability threshold.
Padrino López’s authority over the armed forces is absolute, as Chavismo without military discipline fragments, the opposition cannot access power without a prior military fracture, and an agreement is merely paper without military approval.
His long tenure signals his key function in containing conspiracies, managing promotions, and measuring loyalties within the military institution.
Like Cabello, Vladimir Padrino López is a hostage of a besieged system’s logic. The U.S. reward of up to $15 million for information leading to his arrest serves as a constant warning and positions him, like Cabello, as a potential bargaining chip in negotiations for the survival of the rest of the command.
Non-State and Opposition Actors
The anatomy of power in Venezuela would be incomplete without including the irregular actors operating on the margins of the state. These include armed collectives, mega gangs, smuggling networks, illegal mining, drug trafficking routes, and the presence of Colombian guerrillas.
These groups outsource force, control territories and rents, while imposing an informal order where the state does not reach. They act as a political intimidation arm and providers of territorial control services, demonstrating that power does not only descend through decrees but also “ascends through pacts with armed actors.”
María Corina Machado: Legitimacy Without Factual Power
María Corina Machado represents democratic legitimacy and the desire for change among a significant portion of the population, but she faces a fundamental structural problem.
Her main asset is popular and political legitimacy, however, she does not control weapons, intelligence, the economy, or key infrastructure. The report warns that, during tough transitions, legitimacy is necessary but not sufficient.
Her likely role is twofold: on one hand, to organize a civil coalition and maintain social and international pressure; on the other, to serve as a validation bridge for a transition process. The main risk is being reduced to a moral seal for decisions made by those who actually control coercive power and military might.
International Perimeter: Conditions and Disputes
The United States represents the power of the gates, for while Washington does not govern Venezuela’s day-to-day affairs, it exerts decisive power from the perimeter, controlling the “gates” of the system.
Its influence is manifested through sanctions and licenses, control over financing, insurance, transportation, diplomatic recognition, access to markets, and defining the threshold of coercion.
In a crisis situation, this perimeter power can be almost as valuable as control of the center. The rewards for key figures are a tangible example of this pressure.
Russia, China, and Iran: The Dispute Over Subsoil
Russia, China, and Iran are three actors that do not seek to govern Venezuela but want to ensure that any new political balance does not destroy their strategic and economic interests.
Russia: aims to preserve its strategic influence, military, and intelligence cooperation.
China: prioritizes the security of its assets, debt collection, access to oil, and continuity of its contracts in infrastructure and technology.
Iran: contributes its experience in sanction economies, evasion networks, and security cooperation, establishing a shadow trade logic among sanctioned countries.
Cuba: Survival and Method
Havana plays a dual role, focused on both its own survival and its strategic function within the Chavista ecosystem.
Cuba aims to ensure access to energy and foreign currency for its survival. It provides a control method based on intelligence, counterintelligence, and institutional discipline.
Cuba’s historical relations with Moscow and its ties to Beijing and Tehran allow it to act as a facilitator and proxy for larger interests. Its influence, particularly in security, could become a bargaining chip in a future scenario.
Survival Scenarios
For a new political order to survive, it must fulfill three conditions: guarantee stability, deliver verifiable results to the United States, and contain internal violence.
Under this logic, the prospects for key actors are as follows:
The Rodríguez Brothers: can survive if they manage to maintain state functionality and facilitate an orderly transaction.
Vladimir Padrino López: can survive because he controls the threshold of military stability, an indispensable factor.
Diosdado Cabello: can only survive if he manages to reconfigure himself as a guarantor of order and not as a symbol of internal war.
María Corina Machado: can significantly influence if she manages to convert her legitimacy into a real and functional political architecture.
The summary of the report is uncomfortable since power in Caracas is not announced; it is administered, imposed, negotiated, and protected through a complex balance between internal factions and external pressures.
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