London 12.07.2012 | “You have no idea how much things have changed in recent years. People are angry, stubborn. Do you know what it’s like to go to the supermarket and see endless lines for the same detergent? The same powdered milk, when you can find it? The same flour? There’s nothing decent to buy. Moreover, you have to pray to the saints every time you go out, because you never know if you’ll come back alive. The issue of insecurity and kidnappings has gotten out of hand for the regime. The thieves are the very policemen. That idolization people had for Chavez—it’s over, man. Now people go to official marches, collect their money, and leave that fool talking to himself, like they did in Plaza Caracas when he went to register at the CNE.”
This description is part of one of the many recent conversations with a family member who is visiting. In his opinion, Capriles has a chance to beat Chavez in the elections. Daniel Duquenal, whose opinions I greatly respect, shares the same view.
For my part, I can’t help but be amazed at such hope, which they say is the last thing to die, and in the case of Venezuela, it seems to support that theory. I can’t harbor such hope. And I can’t for reasons that are plain for all to see. To wit: Chavez still controls all the powers, all the institutions, all the money, all the weapons, and all the voting machines. The opposition still doesn’t know, for certain, if the almost 19 million registered in the REP exist or not. Despite the irresponsible and false statements of Ramon Guillermo Aveledo—a dinosaur of the 4th Republic whom no one knows how or by whom was elected to the position he holds in the MUD—the reality is that the opposition has not audited the electoral system, has not audited the REP, and it is unclear if they have witnesses for all the voting centers, and therefore they have no way to monitor what will happen on October 7.
Now, I estimate that Henrique Capriles has between 3.7 and 5 million votes in the bag. Let’s remember that Manuel Rosales obtained 3.7 million votes in the last presidential election in 2006. It would be foolish to think he won’t achieve at least the same number of votes as Rosales. Despite the supposed worsening of the situation in Venezuela on all fronts since 2006, which would indicate greater vulnerability for the leader in the upcoming elections, it is worth keeping in mind what happened back then.
That massive registration of Capriles’s candidacy, which everyone saw as a sign of victory, should not confuse or excite anyone. The photo on the right is from a Rosales march in 2006. I understand, because I have lived it, that people get excited and think, in light of such gatherings, that the opposition is in the majority. However, I must warn that mass gatherings do not topple dictatorships. And before any reader attempts to refute the above and brings up the Arab Spring, it is essential to remember that what happened in those countries was far from resembling the peaceful gatherings occurring, and that have occurred, in Venezuela. In 2006, I saw millions of citizens show their support for Rosales across Venezuela. Millions. In Caracas, Maracaibo, Valencia, Barquisimeto, Merida, Maracay… Moreover, I would dare say that I have the best photographic collection of marches in post-1998 Venezuela. I didn’t just hear about it, I witnessed it, and I must admit it was one of the most wonderful experiences of my life. That crowd is hopeful. But then came December 3, and Chavez defeated us by a landslide. His paid marches, which were mandatory for public employees, didn’t draw even half the people. Yet, he garnered more than two million votes than Rosales. Days later, in a meeting with Leopoldo Lopez and Benigno Alarcón, I learned that the opposition had no witnesses in 40% of the 32,000 polling stations, mostly in rural Venezuela.
We are in 2012. Venezuelans, as much as they complain about the current situation, are not willing to behave like Tunisians, or Egyptians, or Libyans. The same applies to the Venezuelan opposition, which believes that repeating the same strategy from 2006 will yield different results in 2012. Six years have passed. During this time, the only politician who has traversed Venezuela is Leopoldo Lopez, and he is not even a candidate. The others remain relatively unknown beyond their sphere of influence. Thus, those from Zulia, the east, the Andes, and the plains know little about Capriles’ work as governor in Miranda, just as they didn’t know Rosales in 2006. Capriles’s “door-to-door” campaign is not different from the various tours Rosales did in 2006. The marches will be just as massive, give or take a few people. They will still shoot at him—to scare him. They will prevent him from going into the same neighborhoods. They will cut the power in the same cities—to silence his speech. They will block his landing at the same airports. They will allow him to speak just the same 3 minutes per day. The same international leftist degenerates will criticize him. The same polling companies will place him 20 points behind the dying leader. In other words, the script is exactly the same. We’ve lived it, and for those who are unaware, I invite you to check this archive (between September 14 and December 5, 2006). A warned soldier doesn’t die, and if he does, it’s ’cause he was foolish!
The questions we need to ask ourselves, and pose to those leading the MUD—same faces and names from 2006—are:
How many witnesses have been trained in rural Venezuela?
How many voting centers exist in rural Venezuela?
How many of those already have the necessary witnesses?
What control does the MUD have over the appointment of polling station witnesses by the CNE?
When will the CNE deliver the REP to the MUD for an audit?
When, where, and who is in charge of auditing the Smartmatic machines, fingerprint scanners, and the rest of the electronic voting system?
What will be the MUD’s role in the counting and totalization of the votes?
What control does the MUD have in inviting international observers?
Once they answer those questions, with clear details, we can start to have some hope. Because if we have a presence in all polling stations, and participate in all counts, according to the LOSPP, we will know for certain if Chavez won or not. I still believe that if we have presence everywhere, Chavez will have to prove he has the votes, that he has the people, that he won fairly. Otherwise, he might just flip the table when revealed.
For the reasons mentioned above, I do not share the hope. I refuse to deceive myself, to believe in fairy tales after 14 years. They say it’s foolish to expect different results when the same strategy is repeated. From my perspective, I don’t see Capriles doing anything different from what Rosales did in 2006. Nothing. Is a victory possible? I don’t think so, unless the leader passes through the moor, after which Capriles’s chances will be even more uncertain.