Are we witnessing the final moments of the Cartel of the Suns? While we lack the ability to predict the future, recent events suggest the tightening grip of Nicolás Maduro’s criminal enterprise, as their sources of financing suffer cuts due to U.S. military operations in the Caribbean near Venezuela’s shores.
The economic and military situation in Venezuela has been scrutinized by José Humberto García, an expert in security and intelligence, in conversations with Sin Filtros and Venezuela Política. He pointed out how drug trafficking, particularly cocaine, provides the Venezuelan regime with significantly higher revenues than those from oil.
García maintains that the annual cost of sustaining the Venezuelan state is between 25 and 30 billion dollars, a figure that drug trafficking more than compensates for. Due to sanctions and U.S. military operations aimed at confronting and dismantling the Cartel of the Suns, Maduro’s regime faces a gradual economic collapse that could fully set in by the second quarter of 2026 if this cash flow is eliminated.
The expert mentioned Venezuela’s supposed military preparation to counter U.S. action, labeling the Bolivarian National Armed Forces’ defense exercises as a “show,” given that the FANB lacks operational capacity and modern weaponry to withstand the degradation, dismantlement, and elimination phases outlined by the U.S. State Department to combat drug cartels.
Sustainability of the Venezuelan State
The Venezuelan state is facing an existential sustainability crisis, driven by a convergence of economic, military, and geopolitical factors. Its funding model has shifted from oil to drug trafficking, making cocaine the financial pillar that supports the regime.
This model, however, is under systematic attack from a coordinated operation involving multiple U.S. government agencies, aimed at cutting the cash flow of the Cartel of the Suns. Economic simulations project a total financial collapse by the second quarter of 2026 if these operations continue.
Military Capability Against Anti-Drug Operations
José Humberto García analyzed the Venezuelan military landscape and noted that the Venezuelan Armed Forces are in a state of nearly total operational incapacity to confront high-tech external threats. This is due to endemic corruption, lack of maintenance, obsolescence of Russian materials, and absence of real training, all of which have eroded any credible defense capability.
He stated that the regime’s propaganda, which showcases coastal defense exercises, is merely a “circus” that is militarily absurd, designed for internal audiences and revealing severe doctrinal and strategic flaws.
He clarified that the U.S. strategy, articulated in three phases—degrade, dismantle, and eliminate—is being methodically applied in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, which neutralizes the routes of the Cartel of the Suns and paves the way for later phases.
García commented that loyalty within the Venezuelan power structure, based on money rather than ideology, will disintegrate as drug financing dwindles, forecasting an internal collapse of the system.
Economic Model of the Venezuelan Narco-State
Upon analyzing the financial structure of the Venezuelan regime, José Humberto García argued that it reveals a critical dependence on illegal activities for survival. He emphasized that these illicit incomes far exceed those from traditional sources like oil and gold.
García noted that maintaining the operationality of the Venezuelan state—even with its well-known shortcomings—requires an annual budget estimated between USD 25 billion and USD 30 billion. The revenue to cover these costs comes from three main sources, with a markedly uneven distribution:
- Oil: Current production ranges between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels of heavy Merey 16 crude from the Orinoco Belt. This low-quality, high-sulfur oil trades at USD 20 to USD 25 below benchmarks like WTI. At an approximate price of USD 40 per barrel, oil revenues cover only about 40% of the annual budget.
- Gold: Volatile and sporadic gold production contributes approximately 10% of the necessary revenues.
- Cocaine: Drug trafficking has solidified its place as the primary funding source, surpassing all others.
Cocaine as a Financial Pillar of Maduro’s Criminal Enterprise
Without ambiguity, José Humberto García asserted that cocaine trafficking is the economic engine that sustains Nicolás Maduro’s regime. He detailed that estimates indicate Venezuela sells approximately 500 metric tons of cocaine annually, with a market value of USD 40,000 to USD 50,000 per kilogram of pure cocaine in the U.S.
Using the more conservative figure—USD 40,000 per kilogram—he estimated that the volume managed by the Cartel of the Suns, which controls the route from Catatumbo to the east coast of the U.S. via the Caribbean and Haiti, generates income equivalent to the production of 1,200,000 barrels daily of Merey 16 oil.
Thus, García considers the aforementioned figure indicates that cocaine is not a supplementary income source but the primary revenue stream of Maduro’s criminal enterprise. While oil production barely reaches 800,000 barrels daily, drug trafficking activities represent a 50% higher value equivalent, covering more than 50% of the national budget.
Consequences of Financial Strangulation
García believes that the coordinated operations of the U.S. Departments of War, Justice (FBI), Treasury, Homeland Security, and State are managing to “dry up the cash flow” of the Cartel of the Suns by preventing the repatriation of drug money.
This financial strangulation has direct and observable consequences:
- Projection of Collapse: If the blockade on cocaine flows persists, the regime’s economy is expected to “dry up completely” by the second quarter of 2026.
- Internal Plunder: In response to the liquidity shortage, the regime has intensified fiscal and financial predation on the Venezuelan population.
- Social Homogeneity vs. Economic Loyalty: Unlike countries with sectarian or tribal divisions, Venezuela is socially homogeneous. Alliances within the power structure are based solely on money, not ideology or tribal ties. This applies to both military factions and allied groups like the ELN, which currently operates as a “Venezuelan guerrilla” out of economic convenience.
U.S. Strategy in the Hemisphere
The U.S. government has defined drug trafficking in the hemisphere as a direct threat to its national security, prompting a multifaceted and robust strategy to combat it.
A statement from the State Department on September 27 clearly outlines a three-phase strategy to neutralize drug cartels and terrorist organizations:
- Degrade: Weaken the operational and logistical capabilities of the Cartel of the Suns.
- Dismantle: Disassemble their command, control, and funding structures.
- Eliminate: Eradicate the threat they represent entirely.
This doctrine is currently being applied in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific.
The U.S. strategy is not monolithic; it adapts to the political conditions of each country affected by drug trafficking.
| Country | U.S. Strategic Approach | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | Collaboration | Has an advanced and diversified economy, reliant on good relations with the U.S. The Mexican government actively collaborates in anti-drug efforts. |
| Ecuador | Collaboration | The new Ecuadorian government has fully committed to addressing the issue, working in conjunction with U.S. agencies. |
| Colombia | Resistance and Sanctions | The current administration has shown resistance to collaborate, leading to sanctions being imposed. A change is expected with future administrations. |
| Venezuela | Military Solution | The country is seen as a narco-state in itself, governed by a cartel. Thus, the solution is mainly military. |
Drug Trafficking as a National Security Threat to the U.S.
The U.S. has come to the conclusion that drug trafficking is the root cause of two of its most severe problems:
- Internal Drug Crisis: The flow of cocaine and other substances fuels the public health and safety crisis in its cities.
- Uncontrolled Migration: The economic and social collapse generated by narco-states is the primary driver of the “migration highway” stretching from the Darién to the U.S. southern border.