Transnational organized crime in Guatemala is growing in the mold of Venezuela, emerging as a narco-state that increasingly mirrors the regime of Nicolás Maduro and its criminal enterprise.
The alarming similarities between transnational organized crime in this Central American nation and the situation in Venezuela, where the state operates as a tool of a criminal corporation, raise serious concerns. Corruption and a lack of electoral legitimacy in Guatemala turn the country into a key distribution hub for drug trafficking in Central America.
Moreover, key officials from the United States Embassy in Guatemala, appointed during the Trump administration but aligned with the Biden administration’s agenda, may be collaborating and protecting these corrupt structures by extorting local politicians, only to present “paper results” that mask the actual deterioration of the situation.
Transnational Organized Crime in Guatemala and Central America
The growing influence of transnational organized crime in Guatemala is alarming, particularly due to the direct parallel with the capture of the Venezuelan state by criminal corporations.
The severity of the issue positions Guatemala as an emerging narco-state, functioning as a crucial logistical and transit hub for Mexican cartels, especially in the trafficking of cocaine and fentanyl originating from China.
President Bernardo Arévalo’s government and his party, Semilla, face serious allegations of electoral fraud and collusion with terrorism, specifically for facilitating the escape of 43 leaders of the Mara Barrio 18, designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. This has led to a 20-year setback in violence rates and a collapse in foreign investment, creating a deliberate chaos that benefits criminal structures.
Drug cartels demonstrate increasing sophistication, utilizing cryptocurrencies for money laundering and advanced weaponry, such as Iranian drones. This contrasts with the ineffective traditional strategies of capturing leaders, thus necessitating a dual approach: a decisive strike against the financial structures of these criminal organizations and the dismantling of their operational capacity through direct actions.
Guatemala: A State on the Brink of Criminal Capture
In Guatemala—just like in Venezuela—the state has become a “mere tool” of a criminal organization. This transformation is attributed to a crisis of legitimacy and deep penetration of organized crime into all spheres of power.
Bernardo Arévalo’s government emerged from an electoral process with irregularities that broke the social contract. Additionally, the ruling party, Semilla, is facing serious accusations.
Furthermore, investigations by the Public Ministry revealed evidence of fraud in the formation of the party and in the elections that brought President Arévalo to power.
Accusations indicate that signatures from deceased individuals were used, as well as forged signatures—one signature for 30 or 40 people—and data from tax files. A judge ordered the cancellation of the party, but the Constitutional Court reversed the decision.
Also, the Semilla party, which was not even among the top eight, suddenly rose to second place thanks to the Smartmatic system. It was shown that more votes were registered for the party in polling centers than the total number of assigned voters. This lack of legitimacy has resulted in a turbulent government and extreme polarization between factions aligned with organized crime and the opposition.
Collusion with Terrorism and Deterioration of Security
Collusion with terrorism is evident through incidents such as the escape of leaders from the Mara Barrio 18—designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S.—under the apparent acquiescence of the Guatemalan government.
Additionally, reports revealed the theft of a large cache of weapons from Air Force depots, which allegedly fell into the hands of a group linked to the government. All these actions have led the Central American nation to a 20-year regression in security, alongside achieving historic levels of homicides with firearms and knives.
The perception of insecurity drives away investment and employment opportunities. There appears to be an intention to create chaos, and while the population worries about daily survival, criminal organizations operate with impunity.
Geopolitical Axis of Drug Trafficking in Central America
Central America serves as an essential strategic corridor for organized crime. Guatemala and Honduras are the most critical links in the supply chain to Mexican cartels and the U.S. market.
Drugs enter the region from South America (Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela) through two main routes: the Pacific (direct to Mexico or Guatemala) and the Atlantic. Honduras acts as the “penultimate point” and the primary recipient of drugs arriving via the Atlantic.
Guatemala receives drugs from Honduras and, due to its porous land border with Mexico, proceeds to deliver directly to Mexican cartels (Sinaloa, Jalisco Nueva Generación, etc.).
Costa Rica has turned into the “big warehouse” for drugs in the region. From there, shipments are transported overland to Honduras and Guatemala.
Fentanyl and Market Dynamics
Fentanyl arrives directly from China to the ports of Guatemala. Customs authorities, under the control of the tax administration superintendent, allow its passage before it is sent to Mexico.
The price of cocaine in Guatemala has collapsed, dropping from USD 12,000 to USD 5,500 per kilo in the last 4-5 years. This phenomenon indicates the existence of a “large drug storage” within the country, reducing the need to import it directly from South America.
Metastasis of Corruption and Institutional Penetration
Drug trafficking has evolved and transformed its strategy, as instead of bribing authorities on a case-by-case basis, it has invested for decades in establishing its own authorities, financing the education of lawyers, economists, and other professionals who now occupy key positions.
Organized crime has infiltrated all three branches of the state.
Organismo Judicial: includes judges who are affiliated with Mara Barrio 18.
Organismo Legislativo: has legislators and operators. High-ranking officials in Congress, including its president, have well-known criminal backgrounds. They were appointed to their positions with the support of the U.S. embassy.
Organismo Ejecutivo: key ministers, such as the Minister of the Interior and the Minister of Defense, are implicated for their direct responsibility in aiding the escape of gang members and the loss of weaponry.
Incongruence of U.S. Foreign Policy
A central point in this issue is the serious disconnect between the policies declared by the Trump administration and the actions of its officials on the ground, particularly at the U.S. Embassy in Guatemala.
The ambassador and the head of the diplomatic mission, although representing the Trump administration, practically oppose it; they are of a “progresista” ideology, pro-LGBT agenda, and pro-Palestinian.
These officials are accused of colluding with corrupt structures in Guatemala, exerting direct pressure on Guatemalan deputies, threatening to revoke their visas and those of their families if they do not approve certain laws. Meetings with block leaders occur at the very embassy, managing to mislead the State Department in Washington by presenting superficial results.
Sophistication of Cartels and Strategies to Combat Them
Criminal organizations have evolved significantly and surpassed the capabilities of traditional law enforcement.
Capacity Description Money Laundering The main method is no longer cash but cryptocurrencies. They use complex transactions through Asian countries (Singapore, Thailand) and the U.S. financial system to legitimize funds.Weaponry They possess superior armaments compared to many armies. Documented entries include Iranian attack drones to Guatemala for the Mexican cartels and the seizure of an Iranian army helicopter.Intelligence They hire ex-experts from government agencies, giving them a significant tactical advantage.Political Control Their financial power allows them to buy loyalty, finance campaigns, and impose candidates, controlling entire governments from within.Hybrid Warfare They utilize “netcenters” (influence and manipulation of public opinion in various and hostile ways) for disinformation campaigns and reputation attacks. International media are used to disseminate propaganda and confuse public opinion.
The only way to dismantle these criminal corporations is through a dual and aggressive strategy:
Financial asphyxiation: aggressively attack their finances. This involves freezing and confiscating assets, especially cryptocurrencies, and tracing laundered money into real estate and other sectors of the legal economy (the “mirror economy”).
Elimination of operational capacity: neutralizing not just the leaders, but the entire operational structure that enables the trafficking of drugs, weapons, and money. This may require direct military actions, treating cartels as the terrorist organizations that they are.
Watch on Sin Filtros “Special Organized Crime: Explosive Revelations Guatemala and Venezuela”: