Washington’s strategy of sanctions and military pressure against Maduro has failed. Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodríguez warns that the real solution is not for Caracas, but for Trump: an international agreement that addresses drug trafficking and migration, allows political reforms, and avoids war in the region.
Byline: La Tabla/Data Journalism Platform December 9, 2025
The failure of the “maximum pressure” strategy applied by Washington against Nicolás Maduro’s government is the starting point of the analysis provided by Venezuelan economist Francisco Rodríguez, a professor at the University of Denver and a senior researcher at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
Rodríguez, known for his studies on the Venezuelan economy and the impact of sanctions, argues that more than Maduro, it is Donald Trump who needs a political exit in the Venezuelan conflict.
The initial fact is clear: the oil sanctions imposed in 2019, the recognition of an opposition leader as the legitimate president, the blocking of assets, and the deployment of warships in 2020 did not weaken the regime. On the contrary, as Rodríguez interprets, these measures allowed Maduro to consolidate his power and deepen institutional control.
The immediate consequence is that U.S. foreign policy has become trapped in a strategy with no results, while its supporters insist on escalating further.
This second fact—the insistence of hawks to increase pressure—creates the possibility of prolonged military conflict in Latin America. Rodríguez warns that the humanitarian costs would be enormous and that the rest of the world has an interest in preventing the U.S. from being dragged into a regional war.
The interpretation here is that the policy of force has not only failed but threatens to spill over into a scenario with unpredictable consequences.
The author identifies two central concerns that motivated the escalation: drug trafficking and irregular migration.
The growth of transnational criminal networks linked to Venezuela is a reality that transcends borders and becomes a global problem. Rodríguez’s interpretation is that this phenomenon cannot be faced solely with sanctions or military threats, but with international agreements that address underlying causes.
Mass migration is another undeniable fact. Between 2012 and 2020, Venezuela experienced the largest documented economic collapse in peacetime, leading to a regional exodus. Colombia hosts about three million Venezuelans, a figure that reflects the magnitude of the issue. Rodríguez concludes that to halt this humanitarian crisis, it is essential to allow the country’s economic recovery, which involves lifting oil sanctions and restoring access to multilateral financing.
The agreement proposed by the author is not unilateral: in exchange for lifting sanctions and creating space for recovery, Maduro should commit to releasing political prisoners, establishing an independent human rights authority, and appointing technical and non-partisan boards in the Central Bank and the oil industry.
These facts, presented as minimum conditions, are meant to be interpreted as steps toward gradual democratization, more realistic than the insistence on an immediate “regime” change.
Rodríguez concludes that external attempts to oust Maduro have fundamentally harmed the average Venezuelan.
The fact that the opposition has weakened and the population has suffered more from sanctions leads to the interpretation that a pragmatic approach is necessary. In his words, the true exit is not for Maduro, but for Trump, who is trapped by pressures from his foreign policy and by a sector pushing him into a dead end.
Professor Francisco Rodríguez’s review reminds us that international policy cannot be reduced to gestures of force. The facts demonstrate that sanctions and threats have failed, and his interpretation points to the need for agreements that address U.S. security concerns while also allowing for political reforms and Venezuela’s economic recovery. Only in this way, he concludes, can a devastating war be averted and a path to stability opened.