Following the announcement from President Donald Trump regarding a “total and complete” blockade of sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela, questions arise about the potential economic implications for Nicolás Maduro’s government.
How a Blockade Would Work
A naval blockade is a military operation in which warships encircle a specific coastline to prevent maritime traffic from entering or exiting. Trump’s threat targets “all sanctioned tankers that come in and out of Venezuela.”
Last week, U.S. forces seized a tanker off the coast of Venezuela. U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi stated that the vessel was transporting sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran. Caracas condemned the seizure as an act of “international piracy.”
If successfully implemented, the naval blockade threatened by Trump would drastically reduce the amount of oil exported from Venezuela. However, it’s unclear which specific tankers would be affected or how the blockade would be enforced.
Like many of Trump’s promises on social media, legal doubts also exist. Elena Chachko, an expert in international law at the University of California, Berkeley, told Reuters that a blockade raises serious questions under both national and international law.
While state-owned oil company PDVSA faces severe international restrictions and many vessels loading crude in the country are individually listed on sanctions lists, others transporting oil from Venezuela are not.
The American oil giant Chevron, for example, received special licenses from the Biden administration in 2022 to resume Venezuelan oil exports. The idea was that easing Venezuelan sanctions would alleviate broader pressures in the oil market following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After starting his second term, Trump reversed this concession policy. Yet, in October of this year, the Trump administration granted Chevron a new authorization to produce oil in Venezuela.
How U.S. Sanctions Have Already Affected Venezuela
Venezuela relies almost entirely on oil for its state revenues. Crude oil and related petrochemical products account for more than 90 percent of the Caribbean nation’s export income. These goods keep the heavily sanctioned and isolated Maduro government in power.
Experts suggest that if there are more cargo seizures or if Trump continues with the blockade, much of Venezuela’s oil would remain in the country, while any that is exported would likely be sold at extremely low prices.
There is already evidence that the recent seizure of a Venezuelan tanker by U.S. forces and the threat of new measures are having an impact.
According to data analysis firm S&P Global Commodities Insights, the number of tankers traveling to Venezuela has drastically decreased in recent weeks. The London-based firm reported on December 16 that as of the week of December 14, there were 17 tankers sailing to or near Venezuelan waters, down from 24 ships the previous month.
S&P’s report also indicates that several sanctioned vessels “seem to be moving away” from Venezuelan waters and the Caribbean Sea in general following the U.S. seizure of the tanker and the subsequent sanction announcements.
On December 11, 2025, the United States sanctioned six shipping companies and six vessels regularly operating in Venezuela’s oil sector. Further sanctions are likely to be imposed in the coming weeks.
Can the Venezuelan Economy Withstand the Damage?
Given the level of crisis that the Venezuelan economy has faced over the past decade, few can predict how significantly this may impact Maduro’s control over power.
The country’s oil production has already declined in recent years due to sanctions, corruption, and poor economic management. Venezuela possesses the largest known oil reserve in the world but has struggled increasingly to maximize its revenue.
How Would This Affect Global Oil Markets?
Although oil prices rose over 1 percent on December 17, most analysts say that Trump’s blockade threat against Venezuelan production will have limited impact on global markets.
“Overall, Venezuela’s export volumes are relatively small compared to global supply. With all attention on the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the market still has a risk of decline,” a trader told Reuters.
Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at the Brussels-based data analysis firm Kpler, stated to Reuters that while Venezuelan oil production represents about 1 percent of the world’s total, “most is concentrated among a small group of Chinese buyers and others in the U.S. and Cuba.”
There are already expectations that the global oil market will face an oversupply next year.
Saad Rahim, chief economist at commodities trading giant Trafigura, told the Financial Times earlier this month that the oil market will confront a “super surplus” as a surge in new supply collides with weak global economic demand, impacting already declining crude oil prices in 2026.
Arthur Sullivan/ DW