The U.S. government is creating a hybrid war scenario against the Cartel of the Suns, aiming to implode the illegitimate regime of Nicolás Maduro, who serves as its head.
The political and military situation in Venezuela is highly tense due to international pressures and the cognitive war strategy employed against Maduro’s regime. Internal collapse of the chavista leadership appears to be one of President Trump’s goals regarding Venezuela: economic pressure, psychological wear and tear on the elites, and hybrid warfare operations would make up the strategy.
Four potential future scenarios are emerging, and of these, cognitive suffocation and internal fracture of the regime, supported by symbolic military pressure in the Caribbean and diplomatic isolation, seem to be the most likely outcome.
Hybrid War: Collapse of the Cartel of the Suns and Maduro’s Regime
For several months, the U.S. government has been developing a hybrid war strategy aimed at dismantling the Cartel of the Suns and its leaders—the criminal regime of Nicolás Maduro, who is considered a threat to U.S. security.
This threat prompted President Donald Trump to implement a plan designed to induce an internal collapse of Maduro’s regime without resorting to traditional military intervention. The central focus of this strategy is an intensive cognitive war that combines symbolic military pressure, economic suffocation, and calculated psychological wear aimed at the elites and, fundamentally, the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB).
The goal is to fracture the internal cohesion of the FANB, demoralize its mid-level and low-ranking commanders, and increase the cost of international support for the regime’s allies, namely Cuba, Russia, China, and Iran. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado actively participate in this psychological offensive, sending direct messages to the military, appealing to their morals, sense of history, and family ties to persuade them to withdraw support from Maduro.
Meanwhile, the Maduro regime—the head of the Cartel of the Suns—although aware of this strategy, shows evident signs of paranoia and psychological vulnerability, manifested in a defensive discourse and symbolic acts of desperation.
While the high military command is likely to remain steadfast due to its deep involvement in networks of corruption and organized crime, the strategy focuses on lower-ranking officers and troops, who directly suffer from the economic crisis and professional stagnation.
The most probable scenario, with over a 50% chance, is an implosion of the regime induced by this cognitive suffocation and a potential fracture within the armed forces.
Implosion of the Cartel of the Suns and Maduro’s Criminal Regime
As things are currently set and considering the developments, the approach of the U.S. government avoids direct invasion—this has been reiterated numerous times by its spokespeople—and instead seeks for Maduro’s system to collapse from within.
Key components of the strategy:
Cognitive Warfare:
The primary element aims to shape perceptions, generate doubt, fear, and internal divisions in the adversary. This is manifested through a constant “narrative play,” such as President Trump’s statements about having a “decision made,” which broaden the “cognitive chaos” within the regime.
Pressure from Limited Forces:
The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in the Caribbean is the most visible manifestation of this tactic. Although its official mission is anti-drug trafficking, its “brutal” deterrent power is designed to psychologically impact the leadership in Miraflores. It cannot be forgotten that the global narcoterrorist organization, the Cartel of the Suns, has its leadership entrenched in the upper echelons of the regime.
Economic Suffocation:
The goal is to undermine the sources of income for the Cartel of the Suns and, consequently, Maduro’s regime to weaken its operational capacity and control.
Anti-Drug Operations:
The campaign of lethal interdictions against vessels allegedly dedicated to drug trafficking has intensified, framed within “broad authorities” that raise debates about their international legality.
The ultimate aim of this combination of tactics is to weaken and divide chavismo into fragments, achieving an implosion without the costs of conventional war.
María Corina Machado’s Message to the Armed Forces
María Corina Machado’s discourse is designed as an integral part of the cognitive war, aiming to fracture military loyalty towards the regime. Her message employs a series of classic psychological resources to influence the psyche of the military personnel.
Narrative tactics used:
| Tactic | Description | Key Quote or Concept |
|---|---|---|
| Moral Dichotomy | Offers a clear choice between good and evil, the people and criminals. | “Be a hero, not a criminal. Be a pride, not a shame to your family.” |
| Appeal to Guilt and Redemption | Attempts to generate guilt over repression and offers a path for redemption. | “Can you sleep peacefully after committing this cruelty? … No one needs a path to redemption more than they do.” |
| Family and Community Link | Reminds military personnel that they belong to a community and families suffering due to their actions. | “The cry of this girl is the cry of all Venezuela, your own children.” |
| Historical Legacy and Justice | Warns of future judgment from history, law, and the people. | “History, law, and the Venezuelan people will be your judges.” |
| Sense of Urgency | Creates the perception that the time to decide is imminent and cannot be postponed. | “That decisive hour is near. The position each one takes will mark their life forever.” |
| Psychological Seduction | Offers a leading and positive role in the future of the country if they make the “right” decision. | “Join us; Venezuela and your brothers await you.” |
The goal of repeating these messages is for them to eventually penetrate the consciousness of military personnel, especially those who are not fully indoctrinated or corrupted.
In Search of the FANB Fracture
The Bolivarian National Armed Force (FANB) is the pillar supporting the regime, and thus, it is the primary target of the fracture strategy. However, its structure is not monolithic and exhibits different levels of vulnerability.
High Command: An Unbreakable Circle
The military upper echelons, composed of generals involved in the “Cartel of the Suns,” are considered loyal to the regime for survival reasons.
- Economic Control: They dominate the Mining Arc, drug trafficking, fuel smuggling, ports, customs, and military businesses.
- International Accusations: They face sanctions and bounties for their capture, which ties them to Maduro, whose survival depends on theirs.
- Control Mechanism: They rule through fear and psychological terror as their sole tool, strengthening ties with Cuba, Russia, China, and Iran.
Mid and Low Command: The Vulnerable Target
The true objective of cognitive warfare lies in the lieutenants, captains, colonels, and troops, who present a very different psychological and material profile.
Vulnerability Factors:
- Economic: They are not integrated into large networks of corruption, have low salaries, and their families suffer from the crisis.
- Professional: Their careers are stagnant, leading to feelings of frustration and accumulated moral fatigue.
- Psychological: They identify more with the people than with the leadership. Concepts like honor, historical shame, and resentment towards corrupt generals resonate with them.
- Fear and Purges: They live in constant fear of the Military Counterintelligence Directorate (DGCIM) and internal purges, which also cultivates latent resentment.
Obstacles to the Fracture
Despite these vulnerabilities, significant barriers exist that prevent a break in the FANB:
- Indoctrination: For 25 years, the FANB has been subjected to intense chavista indoctrination that has “brainwashed” and changed the reasoning of many of its members.
- Terror as a Mechanism: The command structure relies on terror. It describes a system where superiors instill panic in their subordinates, making disobedience extremely difficult.
- Counterintelligence Apparatus: The DGCIM, with strong Cuban presence, constantly monitors any signs of dissent, creating a paranoia that hinders organization.
Response and Vulnerability of Maduro’s Regime
Maduro’s regime is aware of the offensive against it and has deployed a counter-strategy, although its actions also reveal its weakness.
Defensive Tactics of the Regime:
- Appeal to Unity and Chávez: Figures like Diosdado Cabello appeal to Chávez as a unifying element and warn against factionalism.
- Propaganda of Loyalty: The constant repetition of the slogan “Loyal always, traitors never” in barracks seeks to reinforce discipline and counter opposition messages.
- Mobilization of Bases: “Integral Bolivarian Committees” are organized to project an image of popular support and reaffirm “revolutionary unity.”
- Increase in Control: Commands are reorganized, officials purged, and the presence of Cuban intelligence is heightened to suppress any attempts at fracture.
Indicators of Paranoia and Psychological Wear:
- Defensive Discourse: The constant need to reaffirm loyalty and attack “traitors” is an indicator of vulnerability.
- Prayer Act: Nicolás Maduro resorts to religiosity in hopes of gaining adherence due to the high significance of spiritual values. Recently, he held an event with an English-speaking evangelical pastor praying for him, indeed a reaction to the paranoia and collective psychosis that the chavista leadership experiences. This provides solid evidence that the cognitive war is effective and impacting the regime’s leadership.
- Physical Wear: Maduro exhibits non-verbal language indicating tiredness and exhaustion, likely a result of constant pressure.
Probable Scenarios and Possible Outcomes
Four possible future scenarios for Venezuela are visible, each with different probabilities of occurrence.
| Scenario | Description | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Cognitive Suffocation and Internal Fracture | The combination of pressures breaks the cohesion of the FANB. A group of mid-level commands refuses to repress, causing a collapse and implosion of the regime without a classic coup. | ~55% |
| 2. Forced Negotiation with Agreed Exit | International pressure, especially from allies like China, forces the regime into a transition with limited guarantees. | ~25% |
| 3. Limited Military Action (With Triggers) | U.S. surgical military intervention only if specific triggers, such as an attack on U.S. assets or internal collapse risking civil war, occur. Abrogates current Trump doctrine. | Low |
| 4. Regime Persistence | Maduro radicalizes and manages to maintain power through total coercion if factors like U.S. internal politics or fragmentation of the Venezuelan opposition allow it. | ~5% |
The conclusion is that there is a 95% probability that Maduro’s regime will not survive under the current conditions of pressure.
The Context of the “Endless War”
The current strategy of the United States is framed as a response to what is termed the “endless war”: a low-cost hybrid war that chavismo, in alliance with Cuba, has waged against the U.S. for years.
Manifestations of this “endless war”:
Fentanyl Crisis: Venezuela is seen as a hub in the distribution of drugs that, combined with fentanyl in Mexico, cause more than 100,000 deaths per year in the U.S., surpassing the toll of the Vietnam War.
Migration as a Weapon: The deliberate sending of millions of migrants, among whom spies and fundamentalists infiltrate, is perceived as a plan to destabilize the U.S. from within.
Exporting “Twenty-First Century Socialism”: Chavismo has undermined regional stability by funding far-left movements in countries like Mexico and corrupting democracies.
The Trump administration understood that the chavista regime, head of the Cartel of the Suns, poses an existential threat and a risk to the national security of the United States, justifying the current offensive to dismantle it.