As President Donald Trump stated, the United States is not planning a war with Venezuela but rather targeting the Cartel of the Suns and other narcoterrorist organizations that harm the American nation.
The United States has denied any direct military intervention in Venezuela, although it confirmed that actions against the illegitimate regime of Nicolás Maduro, the leaders of the Cartel of the Suns, will continue. This includes military operations in the Caribbean to combat drug trafficking and terrorism.
The United States has adopted a calculated deterrence posture and asymmetric warfare approach towards narco-states, particularly in Venezuela. This strategic approach combines a show of military force with deliberate diplomatic ambiguity, designed to create a constant state of uncertainty and nervousness in adversarial regimes.
The goal is not necessarily a direct confrontation but rather to maintain sustained pressure that exploits the adversary’s internal weaknesses and limits its maneuverability.
U.S. Strategy Towards Venezuela
The Trump administration’s policy toward Venezuela is characterized by a combination of sustained military pressure and calculated strategic ambiguity.
Military Presence in the Caribbean:
Extended operation: a U.S. military operation in the Caribbean, initially slated for 60 days and already concluded, has the potential to be extended for an additional 30 days, totaling 90 days.
Legal Framework:
President Trump justifies the military deployment under the “imminent danger” doctrine. This provision allows him to take military actions without explicit and ongoing Congressional authorization to defend the United States from imminent threats to its security and sovereignty.
Official justification: the administration declared that drug cartels and gangs, including networks trafficking fentanyl and cocaine linked to the Cartel of the Suns, are terrorist organizations. It has been argued that these groups have facilitated the entry of criminal elements and radical activists (like those from Hamas) into the U.S. through Darién.
Interpretation of the timeframe: the Trump administration stated that since this is a drug enforcement operation, conventional time limits—the 60-day clock—do not apply, granting them flexibility to maintain the operation indefinitely.
Communication and Asymmetric Warfare:
Plausible deniability: President Trump employs a communicational tactic where he neither confirms nor denies attack plans, leading to prolonged controversy. When asked direct questions about intervention, he responds with evasive comments like, “it’s about many things at the same time” or “how am I supposed to tell a reporter if I’m going to do some strike in Venezuela?” This strategy keeps Maduro’s regime on edge.
Creating uncertainty: key spokespersons such as Marco Rubio and the president himself “throw the ball and catch it” to play with the Venezuelan regime’s expectations and mood.
Impact on the regime: this strategy appears to cause great nervousness among high-ranking figures of Chavismo, like Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino López, leading them to make mistakes. Trump himself stated in an interview that Nicolás Maduro “has counted days left.”
Venezuela and the “State-Cartel” Model
The Venezuelan model represents a complete fusion between the state apparatus and criminal enterprise. Unlike other countries where organized crime penetrates or corrupts the state, in Venezuela, the Cartel of the Suns is the state.
This structure not only controls drug trafficking but also acts as a “organizing element” of transnational crime, using the entire governmental, military, and diplomatic infrastructure for its purposes. Essentially, it’s a state business.
U.S. federal accusations identify the highest figures of the regime as leaders of this criminal structure. Among the main individuals cited are:
• Nicolás Maduro
• Diosdado Cabello
• Vladimir Padrino López
• Tareck El Aissami
• Néstor Reverol
The strategic U.S. pressure, characterized by its ambiguity and consistency, has created a visible state of nervousness within the regime’s leadership. This psychological destabilization is a core objective of the asymmetric warfare employed by Washington.
Key Differences Between Organized Crime in Mexico and Venezuela
Although drug trafficking has penetrated the power structures of both countries, the way it does so is fundamentally different. Analyst Eric Fajardo articulates a crucial distinction between the narco-state models in Mexico and Venezuela, which helps clarify the unique nature of the Mexican challenge.
Mexico: cartels operate as feudal lordships that fight each other for control of territories. While the state is penetrated, there is still a struggle between the narco-feudal lords and the government.
Venezuela: the Cartel of the Suns is the state. The state power functions as the organizing and centralizing element of drug trafficking, making it less violent internally but much more effective as a criminal organization.
Ideological alignment: a “corporate solidarity” is observed among leftist governments (Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia), which support each other. Similarly, a conservative axis emerges with communication and support between figures like Trump, Milei, and Bukele.
CharacteristicMexicoVenezuela (Cartel of the Suns)Role of the StateThe state is penetrated and weakened, but there remains a struggle between it and the “narco-feudal lords”. The cartel is the state. State power acts as an “organizing element” of trafficking.Criminal StructureMultiple “feudal lordships” (cartels) competing against each other and the government. A unified and centralized criminal structure from within the military and state apparatus.Nature of the ConflictMore chaotic and visibly violent due to internal struggles between factions. Less violent internally but much more effective as a criminal organization, as it faces no competition.