UPDATE October 8, 2012: The new electoral map is here.
London, March 3, 2012 | After the last presidential election, Venezuela’s electoral map was looking a lot like red. Really red. Out of the 73,129 registered voters in the Amazonas state, 78% voted for Chavez. From the 785,924 registered in Bolivar, 68.8% chose Chavez. Of the 1,960,118 voters in Maracaibo, 51.5% cast their ballots for Chavez. And out of 1,452,985 Caracas residents, 63% voted for the dying leader. Seeing the map is infuriating, and honestly, I worry deeply about what could happen in October. Eljuri just announced the results of the new census: 27,150,095 Venezuelans counted. Of these, 18,197,344 are registered in the REP. This means about 67% of Venezuelans are able to vote.
When was the last time an independent audit was done on the REP? How can we be sure that those 18 million+ are real people, living where their REP data says they do?
My wife, who rarely comments on political issues, told me the other day: “What you wrote about the futility of the primaries is irresponsible. We must vote for whoever the opposition candidate is. Anyone is better than Chavez.” She’s right, and while I admit I went overboard in saying I wouldn’t vote in either the primaries or October, I still explained why I hold my position.
In the last presidential election in 2006, the opposition had no table witnesses in 40% of polling centers. Leopoldo López told me this days after the election during a meeting we had in his office with Benigno Alarcón. This amounted to about 12,000 tables where no opposition representatives were present. 12,000 tables where it’s uncertain if what was reported by the Chavez ministry of elections was indeed reflective of reality. Some believe the figures published by the CNE. Some want to believe the numbers from the CNE. I don’t belong to either camp. I would prefer that all results, nationwide, were backed by witnesses from both sides, so everyone is content.
Parish of Francisco Aniseto Lugo: 99.7% of voters chose Chavez in 2006. Manuel Renaud: 96%. Santa Rita de Manapire: 91.5% voted for Chavez. Florida (Edo Portuguesa): 92.7% pro Chavez. San Miguel, in Boconó: 93.9%. Tuñame in Trujillo: 90.6%… I can already hear the arguments from some: “But that’s in the sticks, only a few vote there…” Yes, a few there, a few elsewhere, and suddenly Chavez is pulling in 7 million votes. The issue is, we don’t even know if those few truly exist, or if they really voted for Chavez. And this worries me. In rural Venezuela, opposition candidates get little attention. We know Chavez will find it hard to steal elections in more populated cities (let’s remember 2007 and the parliamentary elections). But what about there, in supposedly “rural areas”?
That’s where the core of the matter lies. Until I see the MUD announcing who (with names, please) will ensure the integrity and reliability of electoral results in rural areas, I won’t feel at ease. Not to mention the votes of the thousands of Venezuelans living abroad: our votes are not even counted.
Therefore, I summarize my position: elections? Sure, but conditioned, not like sheep to the slaughter. Conditional. Knowing that the state is against us, in an absolutist manner. Conditional. Ensuring that there are witnesses at all polling tables nationwide. Everywhere. Rural Venezuela, the southern area, the neglected backwoods that no Caracas, Maracucho, or Carabobeño politician pays attention to, contains, give or take, 7 million votes. And I’m reminded of Alejandro Toledo, who faced circumstances similar to the opposition against an administration nearly as criminal as Chavez’s. And he won. He forced the game. He compelled Fujimori to basically steal the elections, leading the OAS to declare him a dictator, illegitimate.
The same strategy has to be applied to the dying one, if he makes it to October. Elections can be won. But to win them, it takes much more than just wanting it. We must work, and the work that cannot be prevented is the one that guards the votes, everywhere. Only then will we know if Chavez wins, or if he steals the elections.