Without a complete dismantling of the current institutional apparatus, any attempt to initiate a transition in Venezuela and conduct an election will result in a farce controlled by the ruling party.
This was stated to Venezuela Política y Sin Filtros by electoral expert Guillermo Salas, who warned of the dangers posed by the sophisticated criminal structure of the Venezuelan electoral system, which has been specifically designed to facilitate fraud.
Salas provided a critical analysis of the political strategies aimed at achieving a democratic transition in Venezuela following the exit of Nicolás Maduro. He pointed out that there are three main positions: the national security approach of the Trump administration; the electoral route of the Unitary Platform and María Corina Machado; and the tactics employed by the Chavista regime to maintain power.
Moreover, Salas questions the ties between the traditional Venezuelan opposition and the U.S. Democratic Party, a relationship that complicates understanding with the current administration under President Trump.
Strategies for Transition in Venezuela
In conversations with Venezuela Política y Sin Filtros, Guillermo Salas established the existence of three predominant strategies necessary for the transition in Venezuela.
Salas explains that the core conflict lies in the fact that there is not a conventional political dispute in Venezuela, but rather a confrontation against a transnational criminal structure that has captured the state for nearly 27 years.
The three strategic strands identified are:
Trump Administration’s Approach: focused on national and hemispheric security, treating the regime as a criminal cartel.
María Corina Machado and the MUD’s Approach: aimed at institutional and electoral solutions, though criticized for its ties to the U.S. Democratic Party and potentially misdiagnosing the nature of the regime.
The Regime’s Approach with Jorge Rodríguez as Executor: a survival tactic based on cohabitation, using oil as a bargaining chip with the United States and delaying electoral processes under the guise of “stabilization.”
Salas emphasizes that any electoral process undertaken without dismantling the criminal structure and establishing total control over the electronic voting system of the National Electoral Council (CNE) will inevitably lead to massive fraud.
Adaptive Criminal Structure
Guillermo Salas is adamant that Venezuela does not face a traditional leftist political movement, but a transnational criminal corporation, and therefore, it is necessary to prepare to confront it.
He points out that the Chavista regime operates as an adaptive system, a structure that goes beyond individual figures; the disappearance of icons like Hugo Chávez or the potential exit of Nicolás Maduro does not guarantee the end of the system, as it has mechanisms to replace elements and maintain control indefinitely.
He reminds us that nearly three decades ago, Venezuela experienced the hijacking of public powers, which were replaced by an institutional architecture designed to nullify the separation of powers and sustain the criminal structure indefinitely.
Trump Administration’s Strategy: National Security
Guillermo Salas first mentions the strategy for Venezuela’s transition proposed by the U.S. administration under Donald Trump, which we based on the perception of Venezuela as a direct threat to U.S. security.
Salas identifies several pillars of this strategy:
The “Endless War”:
A concept that describes a multifaceted attack on the U.S. using drug trafficking to weaken the nation, funded by the drug trade and influenced by the Chinese Communist Party and Cuba.
The “Pollo” Carvajal Factor:
Hugo “El Pollo” Carvajal’s statements outline four critical points that motivate Trump’s actions:
1. Narcoterrorism: operations of the so-called “Cartel of the Suns.”
2. Migration Infiltration: the use of the “Tren de Aragua” to export crime to the U.S.
3. Counter-Intelligence: active espionage against U.S. systems.
4. Election Interference: claims regarding the Maduro regime’s involvement in the 2020 U.S. elections.
Salas notes that this strategy carries risks and raises several criticisms:
Complexity of Dismantling: there is uncertainty about the ability to dismantle the criminal structure solely through external pressure.
Prolonged Timelines: the three-stage plan—stabilization, economic recovery, and transition—envisions periods of 18 to 24 months, which breeds distrust among the population.
Political Vulnerability: the possibility that Trump could lose control of Congress in midterm elections may paralyze these actions.
María Corina Machado and MUD’s Strategy: Institutional Route
Secondly, Salas refers to the strategy led by Venezuelan political actors, whose natural ambition is to achieve power through constitutional and peaceful means.
This strategy is characterized by:
Electoral Route: they argue that the exit must be peaceful and that fraud can be overcome through citizen organization and monitoring at polls.
Ties to Globalism: Salas warns of the close relationship between this sector and the U.S. Democratic Party, as well as with satellite organizations (USAID, NED).
Guillermo Salas criticizes:
Diagnostic Error: treating a criminal group as a political actor is a gross mistake.
The Events of July 28, 2024: the success in securing documents on that day was not solely due to witnesses but also to the intervention of an external “elite team” that disrupted the planned fraud in the CNE machines. Salas warns that Jorge Rodríguez has already identified this flaw and won’t allow it to be repeated.
Incompatibility with Trump: it is strategically erroneous for the opposition to seek Trump’s support while maintaining ties with figures like Congressman Gregory Meeks, who is considered a political enemy of Trump and close to Maduro.
Regime Strategy: Survival and “Win-Win”
The Chavista regime’s strategy is in the hands of Jorge Rodríguez, and it aims to maintain power by manipulating international expectations.
Regime tactics include:
Oil Offering: the regime tries to use oil as a “bridge” to negotiate with the Trump administration, offering a situation of energy stability in exchange for maintaining political control.
Amnesty Law: proposed under the regime’s terms to allow the return of exiles, provided they comply with its conditions.
Coexistence and Cohabitation: they propose a period of “stabilization” prior to any elections, which could be indefinitely extended.
Fragmentation of the Opposition: the goal is to divide the opposition vote into multiple factions, including the so-called “scorpions,” thereby diluting the political capital of figures like María Corina Machado.
Electoral Risks
FactorOpposition Perspective (MUD)Critical Perspective (Salas)Nature of FraudInstitutional advantage.Systemic and programmed electronic fraud.Vote DefensePoll witnesses and physical documents.Necessity for technical intervention in the CNE system.Role of the MilitaryWaiting for an institutional break.Undervaluing loyalty to the criminal structure.Conditions elections within 6-10 months.Unfeasibility of clean elections under Jorge Rodríguez.
In conclusion, Guillermo Salas warns that Chavismo has reached an artistic level in manipulating electoral processes, therefore, turning to another electoral farce without previously dismantling the criminal and technological architecture of the CNE will result in a colossal “theft.”
For a real transition to occur, Salas argues that it is essential to make the U.S. administration understand that leaving Chavismo in power represents a persistent threat to hemispheric security, capable of destabilizing other democracies and electoral systems globally.