Venezuela functions as a narco-state, primarily funded by drug trafficking due to the actions of the Cartel of the Suns rather than oil revenue, warned security expert José Humberto García. He discussed the country’s economic and military situation during a conversation with Sin Filtros and Venezuela Política.
García reflected that the financial sustainability of the Venezuelan state—unlike during democratic times when the oil industry supported the nation—is now reliant on the income generated from cocaine production.
He also mentioned the United States’ strategy to dismantle the Venezuelan criminal cartel, which involves phases of degradation, dismantling, and elimination. García argued that Venezuela’s military capability is virtually nonexistent in the face of a coordinated action by the U.S.
He emphasized that the system survives solely on money, and the regime uses the military in absurd and unprepared defense drills.
Economy, Military Capacity, and U.S. Strategy
Venezuela operates as a narco-state, primarily financed through drug trafficking, which serves as the main revenue source for Nicolás Maduro’s regime rather than oil, according to José Humberto García. He stated that this illegal activity generates income equivalent to 1.2 million barrels of oil daily, exceeding official oil production and covering over 50% of the country’s annual operational budget, estimated between USD 25 and 30 billion.
García noted that as a result of this reliance on drug trafficking, the regime is extremely vulnerable to actions that disrupt its cash flow. He mentioned economic simulations projecting that an effective blockade of drug trafficking revenue could lead to a total financial collapse by the second quarter of 2026. Current indicators, such as fiscal exploitation of the civilian population, confirm this increasing economic strangulation.
On the military front, José Humberto García stated that the Venezuelan Armed Forces are in a dire state, characterized by endemic corruption, lack of maintenance, obsolete equipment, and an absent tactical doctrine. He pointed out that air defense capabilities are non-existent due to a high percentage of inoperable air force assets and the command structure designed to prevent internal coordination rather than national defense.
He compared this situation to the fact that the United States has articulated a clear, multifaceted strategy—conceptualized in three phases—degrade, dismantle, and eliminate—to neutralize drug cartels, including the Cartel of the Suns, while identifying the Venezuelan regime as a direct threat to its national security.
Economic Sustenance of the Venezuelan State
In examining the finances of the Venezuelan state, José Humberto García revealed a structure of income dependent on illegal activities that surpass traditional sources. He stated that the annual operational cost of the Venezuelan state, despite its well-known shortcomings, ranges between USD 25,000 and 30,000 million, which, in U.S. nomenclature, would be USD 25 to 30 trillion.
The three main sources of foreign exchange for the regime are oil, gold, and drug trafficking, with their contributions to the budget being markedly uneven.
| Source of Income | Production / Volume | Estimated Income (% of Budget) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil | 700,000 – 800,000 barrels/day | ~ 40% | Heavy crude oil (Merey 16) of low quality, priced around 25 below the WTI marker. |
| Gold | Intermittent Production | ~ 10% | Revenue is volatile and relies on sporadic discoveries. |
| Cocaine | ~ 500 metric tons/year | > 50-60% | This is the principal source of state financing. |
The Primacy of Drug Trafficking
Drug trafficking has solidified as the financial pillar of Nicolás Maduro’s regime and its operational agent, the Cartel of the Suns.
- Volume: Approximately 500 tons (500,000 kilos) of cocaine are traded annually.
- Value: Using a conservative price of USD 40,000 per kilo in the United States, the total product value is USD 20 billion.
- Oil Equivalence: Annual drug trafficking revenues are equivalent to the production and sale of 1,200,000 barrels per day of Merey 16 oil, indicating that drug trafficking generates more than double the income of current oil production.
Projection of Financial Collapse
José Humberto García stated that coordinated actions from multiple U.S. agencies (Defense, Justice, Treasury, State, and Homeland Security) are aimed at “drying up” the cash flow of the Cartel of the Suns.
Monte Carlo Simulation: Predictive analyses conducted by the expert’s institute indicate that if pressure is maintained and cocaine revenue is cut off, the regime’s economy “will dry up completely by the second quarter of 2026.”
Current Observables: The theory of financial collapse is reinforced by current “observable” conditions: an “absolute looting of the population” via decrees from the Central Bank of Venezuela and SENIAT to extract resources from citizens, alongside a growing dollar inflation within Venezuela; these phenomena indicate that the regime is running out of liquidity and resorting to internal exploitation to sustain itself.
Loyalty Structure and Cohesion of the Maduro Regime
García established that loyalty within Venezuela’s power structure is purely transactional, based on money rather than ideology. Once funding ceases, a rapid disintegration of internal alliances is anticipated without the risk of sectarian conflict, considering the nation’s cultural and social homogeneity. The motto defining these alliances is: “When the money runs out, so does the love.”
Transactional Base:
Loyalty is strictly transactional. The Armed Forces have been corrupted through the creation of an excessive number of generals and fragmentation of command (REDIS, ZODIS, ADIS), granting each faction a “parcel of power” to prevent coordination against the tyranny.
Role of Ideology:
It is estimated that no more than 10,000 people in Venezuela hold genuine Chavista ideological convictions, and among them, only between 1,000 and 2,000 would be willing to take up arms for the cause. The rest of the structure operates based on economic interests.
Absence of Tribal Sectarianism:
Unlike Middle Eastern countries such as Iraq or Syria, Venezuela is a homogeneous nation with over 250 years of colonial history and 200 years of republican life. There are no deep tribal, religious, or ethnic divisions that could lead to prolonged sectarian conflict following the collapse of central power.
External Groups (ELN):
The ELN currently operates as a “Venezuelan guerrilla” due to the economic benefits derived from drug trafficking in collaboration with the regime. If the cash flow stops, they are expected to leave Venezuela and return to Colombia.
U.S. Strategy in the Region
José Humberto García reminded that the U.S. government views drug trafficking in the hemisphere as a direct threat to its national security, linking it both to the internal drug crisis and uncontrolled migration.
A tweet from the State Department on September 27 formalized the three-phase strategy: the doctrine to “degrade, dismantle, and eliminate.”
This strategy outlines a step-by-step process to neutralize transnational criminal organizations:
- Degrade: Weaken the operational, logistical, and financial capabilities of the Cartel of the Suns. This includes the use of drones (MQ-9), missiles (Tomahawks, Hellfire), and electromagnetic warfare to disrupt communications and systems.
- Dismantle: Destroy the military and command infrastructure of the Cartel of the Suns. This would involve precision bombings on anti-aircraft defense positions (Buk systems, S-300), naval bases, radar centers, and clandestine airstrips.
- Eliminate: Neutralize the leaders and remnants of the organization. In this phase, cartel leaders are expected to retreat, facing a survival problem in the Venezuelan jungle or limited urban resistance pockets.
Differentiated Regional Approach
The strategy adapts to the cooperation of each country:
Venezuela: Military Solution. Since it is a state directly controlled by a cartel, the only viable solution is direct military confrontation.
Mexico: Close Cooperation. Its advanced economy and dependency on the relationship with the U.S. encourage cooperation in the fight against drugs without necessitating direct intervention.
Ecuador: Active Collaboration. The new government has focused on tackling the drug trafficking issue with U.S. assistance.
Colombia: Current Resistance. There’s perceived lack of cooperation from Gustavo Petro’s government, resulting in sanctions and tensions.
Venezuelan Military Capability
José Humberto García explained that the Venezuelan military establishment is incapable of offering meaningful resistance to a U.S. military operation. Its condition is the result of years of corruption, negligence, and a flawed doctrinal conception.
Overall Capability Assessment
- Air Defense: “Zero, not the slightest possibility.” Russian systems (Kodai, Buk, S-300, Pechora) are mostly inoperable due to lack of maintenance, training, and parts, a situation worsened by the war in Ukraine which has consumed Russian resources. Operators lack the coordination and experience needed to operate these complex systems.
- Air Force: From the F-16 fleet, only three are operational for flight, but they are not “fully armed” and their radar systems do not function properly. The capabilities of the Sukhoi aircraft are also questionable.
- Navy: “What little is left” of this military component is in a shameful state, exemplified by a recent incident involving an amphibious landing ship that nearly sank due to overweight.
- Morale and State of the Troops: The Venezuelan army suffers from low morale, hunger, and non-functional equipment. The regime designed the structure to be inefficient and to prevent a coup.
Ridiculous Show
José Humberto García described the military exercises showcased by Maduro’s regime as a ridiculous show and absolute irresponsibility.
He mentioned the Igla-S missiles which the regime boasts about and specified that the narrative claiming possession of 5,000 of these portable anti-aircraft missiles is dismissed as a real threat to U.S. forces.
He pointed out that these missiles are infrared-guided, effective only against low-flying targets (helicopters, low-altitude aircraft) at a maximum of 2,000-3,000 meters. They are useless against high-altitude drones, modern fighters, or bombers.
García referred to the operational state of these devices as dubious. There’s no guarantee that the infrared sensors and rocket engines work after years without adequate maintenance. It’s estimated that 50% may be inoperable.
He added that effective usage requires complex training to predict the target’s trajectory, something Venezuelan operators likely lack.
García concluded by stating that U.S. aircraft are equipped with advanced countermeasures that can easily divert this type of missile.
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